2026-01-13 12:30:56

Tonight's US CPI data is not the final verdict, but rather an emotional trigger.

Every time the data is released, the market will surge wildly within 20 to 30 minutes — this is not because the numbers themselves are sacred, but because they directly activate a complete pricing chain. From CPI → inflation expectations → Federal Reserve policy expectations → capital flows and market sentiment, all interconnected. Once this chain is triggered, quantitative teams, algorithmic funds, and sentiment-driven capital will rush in simultaneously.

The current market consensus expectation is: the US November unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate is 2.7%.

What if the data exceeds 2.7%? That would mean inflation hasn't come down, and might even be sticky. In that case, the expectation of rate cuts would be pushed further back — the dollar would strengthen, risk assets would come under pressure, and the crypto market would likely be hammered in the short term.

Conversely, if the data does not exceed 2.7%? Inflation continues to approach the 2% target, making the case for rate cuts more solid. The dollar would come under pressure, risk appetite would rebound, and the crypto market would have a chance for emotional recovery.

Key point: the market is now in a "tensioned" state. There will definitely be volatility tonight, but volatility does not necessarily mean a trend — this is very important.

For short-term traders, this moment tests not your judgment but your position discipline. If you already hold positions, reduce leverage first. If you haven't opened any positions yet, wait until the data is out before acting. Especially in the first few minutes after the data is released, do not chase the market or gamble on the first candlestick — this is the easiest time to get caught.

The real focus tonight, frankly, is observing how the market re-prices the "rate cut expectation" mainline. Those who can control their positions will be able to maintain the initiative amid this volatility. As long as you hold your chips, you’re still at the table.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

16 Likes

Reward
16
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

NightAirdropper

· 3h ago

Damn, it's that 20-minute death moment again, it happens every time. How much heartache does that cause? Leverage first drops, then see what the data says. I've learned my lesson this time. If we break through the 2.7 barrier, our crypto will get hammered. Oh my goodness. The rate cut expectations don't materialize, the dollar strengthens, and all risk assets are done for. I just want to know how the first candlestick will move, but I promised myself I won't chase this time. Position discipline is really more important than eyesight. This is so true. As long as the chips are still there, there's still a chance. Take a deep breath and wait for tonight. In the first few minutes tonight, I need to lock myself up, or my hands will be uncontrollable. The logic of rate cuts depends on this number. It's a critical moment, everyone. Data exceeding expectations? Then goodbye, everyone. I'll first reduce leverage.

View OriginalReply0

EthSandwichHero

· 18h ago

Being in a tense state tests your resolve the most; halving the leverage allows for a more restful sleep.

View OriginalReply0

MoonRocketTeam

· 18h ago

It's that time again—within 20-30 minutes, you can wipe out a month's worth of gains or get a month's supply. The key is whether you've properly loaded your boosters; don't be fooled by the dopamine from the first candlestick. This is the easiest time to get burned.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropHunterZhang

· 18h ago

Ha, it's the same old pricing chain routine again. I just enjoy watching this 20-minute frenzy. Anyway, I don't have many orders on hand, so I might as well watch the show with free chips.

View OriginalReply0

DEXRobinHood

· 18h ago

It's the same old story, before the data comes out everyone is a master, after the data is released everyone is a rookie. --- Lower the leverage and wait, no rush anyway. --- Really, what's more terrifying than the data itself is that crazy wave of follow-up orders, every time they step on it. --- Being in a tense state is the best time for retail investors to dig their own pits, don't ask me how I know. --- The line of rate cut expectations has been drawn a bit too long, feels like it's drifting off course. --- Having no orders in hand is the most satisfying, just watch the show casually, no need to risk your life. --- The number 2.7 now looks a bit fragile, feels easily breakable. --- No matter how eloquently you speak, it can't change the fact: someone will definitely get liquidated tonight. --- Position discipline? In the crypto world, this term is just like "family planning," just listen and forget about it.

View OriginalReply0

SchrödingersNode

· 18h ago

Expectations of rate cuts are being re-priced, this is the real highlight Leverage should be reduced first, don't be fooled by the first K-line Volatility ≠ trend, this principle must be understood clearly Wait for data, don't chase orders, having chips in hand is the key to winning CPI is just an emotional bomb, the real test is discipline in position sizing

View OriginalReply0