Looking at the daily chart of gold, you can feel what market consensus looks like. Under the two major backgrounds of continuous central bank gold purchases worldwide and escalating geopolitical tensions, gold prices have been rising along the upward channel, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages perfectly aligned, forming a clear bullish pattern.

Currently, the 5-day moving average is around $4,520, with the price at $4,586, a gap of about $66. This short-term deviation seems quite large, but don’t rush to conclusions— the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is as high as 95%, and the market is digesting this expectation. The upward divergence of the moving averages has not been broken, plus global central banks are expected to increase their gold holdings to 755 tons by 2026, which provides strong support for the price.

In the medium term, the 10-week moving average (about $4,230) is key. It withstood the correction caused by the margin increase in December last year and has become the support baseline for this round of rally. The 200-day moving average at $4,585 coincides with the current oscillation range, which itself reflects a market waiting for CPI data to determine the direction.

On the 4-hour chart, the moving averages are somewhat clustered together, and the price repeatedly fluctuates within the range of the averages. This may seem calm, but in fact, it’s a sign of accumulating strength. Sticky inflation and rate cut expectations are balanced here, but don’t forget that the global liquidity easing trend remains unchanged. Overseas gold ETFs have seen net inflows for eight consecutive months, all pointing in the same direction. The consolidation on the 4-hour chart is less about weakness and more about a normal adjustment during an upward move, preparing for a breakout after CPI data is released.

The monthly chart fully confirms a long-term bull market for gold. The price has consistently stayed above the 50-week moving average, and the 20-week moving average is steadily rising, which is strong long-term validation. The bearish candle with a shadow in December last year? That was a short-term deleveraging correction triggered by the exchange’s risk control upgrade, not affecting the overall trend. Moving into January 2026, driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela and rising demand for USD safe-haven, gold prices rebounded strongly and hit new highs, likely fully covering the previous correction.

If the month closes with a strong bullish candle, it will simultaneously confirm three levels of validity—macro easing, central bank accumulation, and technical breakout—creating a resonance. This makes the target of breaking through $4,770 more confident.