Recently, an interesting disagreement has emerged in the financial circle. While most people are still hoping for a rate cut this year, a major international investment bank has released a "stunning forecast"—the Federal Reserve will honestly keep interest rates steady between 3.5% and 3.75% this year, and any policy shift will have to wait until Q3 2027, at which point it’s very likely to be a rate hike rather than a cut.

This contradicts the mainstream market sentiment. According to exchange-traded futures instruments, traders are currently betting wildly on at least two rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points. Analysts in the crypto space mostly agree with this logic: once borrowing costs decrease, risk assets will usher in a new wave of popularity, and Bitcoin will naturally rise along with it.

One analyst even said, "Although 2025 will face many challenges, as long as active supply continues to shrink and rate cut expectations persist, Bitcoin should see a strong rebound by 2026."

Interestingly, the optimistic camp in the crypto world is now pinning its hopes on the next Federal Reserve Chair. The current chair’s term will end in May, and the market generally believes the successor will adopt a more dovish stance. This expectation gap might be the source of the upcoming uncertainties.