2026-01-13 12:40:46

#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 The December US CPI year-over-year rate of 2.7% looks pretty good, but the story behind it isn't that simple—core CPI year-over-year remains stuck at 2.6%. This "hidden acceleration" signal indicates that inflationary pressures haven't truly eased; they've just been suppressed by short-term energy price fluctuations. However, the market has overhyped the possibility of the Federal Reserve "pausing rate hikes," and the crypto community is even more caught up in the collective fantasy of "safe-haven assets."

Bitcoin faces a very awkward situation. On one hand, if the Federal Reserve chooses a "longer-term and higher" interest rate policy due to stubborn core inflation, highly leveraged crypto assets will be directly squeezed out by liquidity contraction; on the other hand, if the market continues to misread inflation trends, the "inflation hedge" label will attract large inflows of capital. But this consensus expectation itself is a landmine—when policy reverses, the resulting fallout will be bloody.

Let's be clear: the current "inflation hedging" narrative is actually a high-risk game. The real edge lies in recognizing the market's cognitive gap—while most people are still chasing the story of "Bitcoin = digital gold," savvy capital has already been lurking in undervalued tracks like Layer2 solutions. Liquidity crises never give warning signals; they just appear suddenly.

The choices now are quite binary: either exit in time before consensus breaks down, or wait for the true bottom and then make a bold move. The middle ground? That’s the graveyard for most people.

BTC4,49%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

8 Likes

Reward
8
4
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

NFTDreamer

· 9h ago

Core CPI is still stubbornly stuck, and this wave of "pause rate hikes" rhetoric is truly ridiculous. Everyone is collectively dreaming, but no one will wake up. The most terrifying thing is the consensus expectation; everyone is waiting for the bottom moment, and when it comes, they'll be shown the door. Layer2 is actually well prepared, but most are still clinging to the old dream of Bitcoin as "digital gold."

View OriginalReply0

ForkTongue

· 9h ago

Core CPI is the real culprit, don't be fooled by surface numbers --- Another wave of "anti-inflation" retail investors are about to be cut, it happens every time --- Layer2 indeed got slept on, but now it's not necessarily safe to jump in, let's wait and see --- The Federal Reserve says one word and the market flips, going all-in really takes courage --- Exit or go all-in, the middle option is indeed a death sentence... no doubt about that --- I stopped believing in Bitcoin as digital gold a long time ago, in the face of liquidity, everything is useless --- When a stampede really happens, reactions are just not enough, so who can you blame then? --- Core inflation at 2.6% remains unchanged, the Federal Reserve isn't that kind, stop dreaming everyone

View OriginalReply0

PhantomMiner

· 9h ago

The core CPI trap, most people haven't understood it at all --- On the eve of another wave of consensus breakdown, I bet Layer2 will be the last laugh --- Honestly, if you're still shouting "Bitcoin is a safe haven," get ready to be proven wrong --- Liquidity doesn't knock on the door; it just disappears suddenly --- The middle range is indeed a meat grinder, no doubt about it --- Once the Federal Reserve flips, the wave of retail investors will be over --- People who see through the inflation trap have long been lurking in Layer2 --- When policy reverses, the stampede is truly terrifying --- Staying clear-headed is difficult, but not being clear-headed is even worse --- There are only two options, no third way. Now is the time to choose a side

View OriginalReply0

consensus_whisperer

· 9h ago

Core CPI is the real culprit, most people are just hallucinating Speaking of Layer2, it has indeed been overlooked; it will be too late once we look back Consensus expectations = the biggest trap, this lesson is bloodily learned The middle position is indeed a gift, either hide or fight The Federal Reserve hasn't spoken yet, but the market is already hyped; this problem needs to be fixed Behind seemingly simple numbers are all knives Liquidity just disappeared, can't react in time Wait, Non-Farm Payrolls are the key, CPI is just the prelude? Most people are still dreaming, the alert ones have already taken action When the stampede happens, no one can escape; this is the reality

View OriginalReply0