Ibovespa consolidates recovery above 161,000 points with a focus on defense and real estate sectors; dollar gives way to R$ 5.40

Monday (5) effectively marked the return of the Brazilian financial market with significant institutional flows after the New Year recess. The Ibovespa closed the session in positive territory, with a gain of 0.83% and ending at 161,869.76 points, signaling a reversal of the losses accumulated in the first trading day of the year. Source: Google Finance The previous trading session had suffered severe volume limitations, impairing proper price formation. Now, with normal capital circulation, the index demonstrates robustness and capacity for recovery.

Macroeconomic Dynamics and Focus Projections

On the domestic front, the Focus report compiled by the Central Bank revealed adjusted perceptions among economists for 2026. The inflation forecast was marginally raised, from 4.05% to 4.06%, reinforcing the assessment of resilient and challenging inflation. This movement draws attention to the persistent price dynamics even in an environment of monetary adjustment.

Monetary policy remains in the spotlight in market expectations. Most economists remain convinced that the Selic rate will end 2026 at 12.25%, representing a significant decrease from the current 15%. This cycle of reduction will fundamentally depend on the December IPCA release, scheduled for next Friday (9). An inflation surprise on this date could reconfigure the entire outlook scenario.

The Construction Boom Under the Lens of Housing Financing

Shares in the real estate sector led Monday’s trading, accounting for the largest gains in the index. MRV (MRVE3) surged with an increase of over 7%, while Cyrela (CYRE3) and Direcional (DIRR3) advanced by over 5%. This performance is not accidental. Analysts at Itaú BBA identify that companies exposed to the affordable housing segment enjoy a privileged operational cycle.

The continuous flow of resources allocated to the Minha Casa Minha Vida program maintains attractive and stable financing conditions. This structure allows developers to accelerate their launch schedules, expand supply, and simultaneously improve profit margins. The environment creates value for these companies, justifying recent optimism.

Embraer Leads Rotation into Defensive Assets

While construction companies provide fundamental support to the index, Embraer (EMBJ3) emerged as the session’s major speculative highlight, closing up 4.85% at R$ 92.89. The movement reflects an immediate reorganization of global capital flows in response to geopolitical developments in South America.

The rapid market response to international events generated a clear sector rotation. When institutional uncertainties and the possibility of armed conflicts gain traction, capital flows into defense and aerospace technology companies. These assets act as safe havens during periods of risk aversion. Experts note that the expectation of escalation in regional military budgets and fleet modernization sustains the performance of this segment. It is not an isolated movement but a well-established pattern in international finance.

Vale Tracks Commodity; Petrobras Challenges Oil Price Rise

Among the traditional blue chips, Vale (VALE3) was among the most traded and closed higher, following iron ore price movements. Futures contracts for the commodity in Dalian, China, rose nearly 1%, reflecting persistent demand expectations from Chinese steelmakers. This alignment confirms the sensitivity of the stocks to global raw material demand dynamics.

An opposite movement was recorded by Petrobras (PETR4). Despite the strong appreciation of oil in international markets, the company’s shares performed negatively. The market priced in potential effects of U.S. military intervention on Venezuelan production infrastructure. Speculation about rebuilding production capacity and new crude oil supply flows weighed on the sentiment of the Brazilian oil sector, neutralizing potential gains from barrel appreciation in London and New York.

Retail Under Pressure; New York at a New Record

Brazilian retail faced a sales surge during the session. C&A (CEAB3) led the declines in Ibovespa with a drop of 16%, described as aggressive profit-taking after recent stock appreciation. Traders attribute this movement to gains realization by investors following a period of significant appreciation.

Abroad, the outlook remains optimistic. U.S. indices posted substantial gains, with the Dow Jones reaching a new nominal all-time high, rising 1.23%. The energy sector responded positively to international events, fueling a risk-seeking environment. This risk appetite dynamic in the U.S. contrasts with defensive behaviors in other regions, highlighting geographic differences in exposure assessments to events.

Brazilian Currency Recovers Against the Dollar

The dollar closed Monday down 0.34%, at R$ 5.40. The session was marked by the normalization of institutional flows after the New Year recess. Source: Google Finance The movement reflects the first effective day of real capital circulation in 2026, with volumes and prices at operational standards different from the previous trading session.

In the international scenario, the U.S. dollar also lost traction against major reserve currencies. The DXY index, which monitors the dollar’s strength against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.16%, closing at 98.26 points. This weakening signals a repositioning in an environment of greater confidence in emerging markets and a temporary reduction in risk aversion.