## What Drives the Rise in Crude Oil Prices Today: Tensions in Iran and Strong Economic Data

### Crude oil prices today record significant gains driven by multiple factors

Energy markets experience a notable rebound this session. February WTI futures increase by 3.10%, while RBOB gasoline contracts advance by 2.00%, both reaching their highest levels of the month. This upward movement in crude oil prices today reflects the confluence of geopolitical pressures and positive economic signals that are redefining the oil landscape.

### Instability in Iran as a central factor in the rise

The escalation of protests within Iran is at the center of market concerns. As an important OPEC producer with a capacity of over 3 million barrels per day, any disruption in Iran causes immediate effects on global supply. Threats of government sanctions against protesters and warnings from international leaders increase the risk premium on crude. This geopolitical context explains why crude oil prices today continue to rise even with the US dollar at four-week highs.

### US economic data reinforce demand outlook

US macroeconomic indicators are providing additional support. The December unemployment rate closed at 4.4%, surpassing previous estimates, while the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for January reached 54.0 points. These robust figures suggest resilient energy demand in the coming quarters, supporting oil prices from an economic fundamentals perspective.

### The "crack spread" factor boosts refiners' purchases

The crack (margin differential between crude and refined products) reaches its highest level in three weeks, encouraging refineries to increase their crude purchases. This behavior generates additional buying in the futures market and contributes to the bullish momentum observed today in crude prices.

### Rebalancing indices will bring more buying volume

Citigroup projects that the annual rebalancing of commodity indices (BCOM and S&P GSCI) will attract approximately $2.2 billion in capital inflows into oil futures during the upcoming week. This scheduled fund flow is another catalyst supporting bullish optimism.

### Headwinds: Saudi cuts and surplus projections

Saudi Arabia has reduced the prices of its Arab Light for the third consecutive month, signaling weakness in global demand. Morgan Stanley has revised its estimates downward, projecting a more pronounced global surplus. The bank lowers its crude price outlook today and for the future: to $57.50 per barrel for Q1 (from 60) and $55 for Q2.

### Inventory and global production dynamics

Crude volumes stored in tankers fell by 3.4% compared to the previous week, totaling 119.35 million barrels. On the demand side, China maintains a robust pace of purchases, with oil imports projected to reach a record 12.2 million barrels per day in December, a 10% monthly increase, while replenishing its strategic reserves.

### OPEC+ stance amid projected overcapacity

OPEC+ confirmed the maintenance of its pause on production increases until the first quarter of 2026. After increasing by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the group refrains from further expansion given the projected global surplus. The International Energy Agency estimates a record surplus of 4 million barrels per day for 2026. OPEC continues gradually restoring the cuts made in early 2024, with 1.2 million barrels per day still to be reestablished.

### Pressure on Russian supply from attacks and sanctions

In a relevant context, Ukraine has attacked at least 28 Russian refineries in the last four months, limiting export capacity. New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil infrastructure and tankers have further restricted Russian supply, creating some counterbalance to the projected surpluses.

### US supply outlook upward

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its US crude production forecast for 2025 to 13.59 million barrels per day. Production for the week of January 2 was at 13.811 million barrels per day, just below the November record. The active rig count increased to 412, recovering from 4.25-year lows, though significantly below the maximum of 627 recorded in December 2022.

### US inventories in line with seasonality

As of January 2, US crude inventories were 4.1% below the five-year seasonal average, gasoline stocks were 1.6% above, and distillates were 3.1% below the average. This inventory composition reflects sustained demand despite surplus projections.

### Summary: complex dynamics in energy markets

Today’s crude oil price reflects a pulse between bullish factors (geopolitical tensions, solid economic demand in the US and China, index rebalancing flows), and bearish pressures (surplus projections, Saudi price cuts, US capacity increases). This tension defines the energy scenario for the coming quarters.