## Is the "Four-Year" Cycle of Bitcoin Still a Law or Just Market Story?

Since Bitcoin's inception 18 years ago, the "four-year cycle" theory has almost become the crypto community's gospel. Halving → reduced supply → price increase → altcoin season, this chain of logic has explained most bull-bear cycles and profoundly influenced how investors, projects, and even the entire industry view the market.

But this cycle is truly different.

**Halving in April 2024: Bitcoin rises from $60,000 to $126,000 — a 110% increase, significantly lower than previous cycles.** Altcoins are even "worse," almost stagnant, while institutional capital begins sharing balance sheets with other assets.

**Could it be that the four-year cycle has fundamentally changed?**

## What is the "Four-Year" Cycle? — From Supply Mechanism to Liquidity Game

Traditionally, the four-year cycle is simply defined: Bitcoin halving (reduces mining rewards) occurs every 4 years → new supply decreases by 50% → selling pressure diminishes → long-term price support.

This is the most mathematically solid part.

But as Bitcoin's market cap grows from billions to trillions of USD, the "600,000 BTC supply reduction" on a scale of 19 million coins is only about ~3% — too small compared to institutional demand. **In this cycle (2024-2028), new BTC added is only 600,000 coins, with selling pressure under $6 billion, easily absorbed by Wall Street.**

Looking deeper, the cycle is driven not only by halving but also by two main factors:
- **Political cycle** (US elections every 4 years)
- **Liquidity cycle** (FED's money printing pace)

As Bitcoin gradually becomes regarded as a "macroeconomic asset" rather than just a "digital commodity," **the four-year cycle is essentially a fiat liquidity cycle — global M2, central bank balance sheet size, is the real determinant.**

## Halving Still Has an Effect, But No Longer Decisive

What might be confusing: If halving's importance diminishes, why does the price still rise after halving?

**Answer: Halving still raises Bitcoin's production cost, but now it acts as a "secondary catalyst" rather than the "main driver."**

Bitcoin mining costs have clearly increased:
- **Previous cycle (2019-2020):** Cost ~20,000 USD/BTC, peak price 69,000 USD, miner profit ~70%
- **Current cycle:** Cost ~70,000 USD/BTC, peak price 126,000 USD, profit ~40%

Profit margin reduction is a natural law as the industry matures. **But halving still raises costs → supports long-term price, just no longer causing parabolic spikes like before.**

## Why isn't the increase much anymore? — ETF and institutional flow change the rhythm

This "weakness" isn't because the cycle has lost its effect, but because **market structure has fundamentally changed.**

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin's peak was mainly driven by retail capital surges. **This time, over $50 billion from spot ETFs continuously poured in before and after halving, absorbing supply shocks before they truly impact the market.**

Result: **Prices are spread over a longer timeframe, no longer exploding within months after halving.**

Moreover, as Bitcoin's market cap surpasses $1 trillion, the capital needed to "double" now must be much larger. **This is a natural boundary effect** — larger markets, reduced volatility, lower yields. Very normal.

## Where are we now? — Bear or Bull or "Postponement State"?

This is the hardest question because there is no single answer.

**Some technical analysts believe we are in a technical bear market** (price breaks MA50 weekly), but not a true cycle bear market — because macro conditions haven't confirmed it.

**Others support a "slow, prolonged bull market"** — liquidity is still accumulating, the FED is starting to cut rates, stablecoin supply continues to grow. As global M2 keeps printing, crypto assets (most sensitive liquidity bubbles) will continue to rise, just slowly and steadily rather than "hotting up."

A true bear market signal is when central banks tighten liquidity or the economy enters recession. Currently, nothing unusual.

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The main difference in this cycle:

**Before:** Halving law → Sentiment → Cycle

**Now:** Macro liquidity → Institutional structure → Slow volatility

## Does the traditional altcoin season still exist?

Honestly: **Probably never again.**

Why?

1. **Total number of altcoins is too high** — liquidity is fragmented too much, no longer possible to have a broad rally like before
2. **Bitcoin dominance is high** — institutions prioritize "safe assets" (bluechip) over small altcoin bets
3. **No clear killer app** — DeFi, NFTs were once classic stories, but not in this cycle

**Instead, there may be a "selective altcoin season"** — only a few tokens with real use cases and revenue generation will attract capital. Like how the "Magnificent 7" dominate the US stock market, future altcoin focus will be on a few big names.

## How should we allocate positions now?

Interestingly, **most veteran investors have already sold or nearly sold all altcoins, in a half-cash or defensive stance.**

General strategy:
- **Core holdings:** BTC + ETH, focusing on "hard currencies"
- **Add-ons:** Stablecoins, exchange stocks, RWA tokens (real assets)
- **Altcoins:** Under 10%, only bluechips with use cases
- **Cash/Gold:** 30-50%, waiting for opportunities

Logic: **Don't bet on cycles, bet on technology, stablecoins, infrastructure.**

## Should we start buying the dip now?

Most practical:
- **If pessimistic:** We are far from the bottom. The real bottom appears when "no one dares to buy the dip"
- **If neutral:** Ideal buy/DCA price is below $60,000 (almost 50% from the peak). **No need to rush, start building positions gradually, discipline is more important than prediction**
- **The only consensus:** No leverage, no continuous trading

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**Practical conclusion:**

The four-year cycle still exists, but **no longer as an "iron law" but as a "soft expectation" within a much more complex system.** Halving, timing, emotions of previous years have given way to macro liquidity, institutional structure, and asset properties.

The crypto market is no longer "boom and bottom," but shifting toward a "slow, prolonged rise + narrow volatility" model, more like gold than technology.

At this point, discipline and patience are more important than cycle prediction.