On a business trip in Beijing, having dinner with a fund manager who specializes in short markets.

I asked: In the financial markets, what scares you the most? He replied: It's not a crash, but when I realize that everyone in the market has reached a consensus.

I asked again: Everyone thinks prices will go up, isn't that a good thing? He sneered slightly: When the cleaning lady is discussing which stock to buy, and everyone is saying "this time is different," that's when the scythe is raised the highest.

He told me that truth is not only in the hands of a few, but truth often exists to harvest the majority. You might think it's "consensus," but in fact, it's a "group illusion" woven for you by the big players through media, public opinion, and algorithms.

I: So how can ordinary people avoid the pitfalls? He: Think in reverse.

When everyone is talking about stability, you should look for crises; when everyone is in fear, you should look for greed. You need to understand that if your thoughts are aligned with the majority, then your wealth level is destined to be the same as most people—at the bottom of society.

Later, I realized that the so-called "mob" is just a group of lambs who have given up thinking, seeking only to gain a sense of security within the crowd. And security is the most highly valued commodity in this world.