Why does Trump insist on Greenland? An in-depth look at the trillion-dollar game behind Greenland and the "tariff war cycle" in the crypto world

It's been a while since I wrote a long article. Recently, X's discussions have been pretty good, so I decided to write a lengthy piece.

This article addresses three questions:
1. Why does the US want to buy Greenland?
2. How long will the tariff negotiations last?
3. Is this market decline temporary or sustainable?

Last night, BTC and ETH prices plummeted. BTC shot up to around 96,000 before crashing down to about 92,000, a drop of nearly 5%.

The reason is that the US wants to buy Greenland and has imposed about 20% tariffs on EU countries that refuse to negotiate.

EU countries aren’t backing down either, directly imposing a total of 93 billion in tariffs on the US—showing a tough stance.

This market behavior is very similar to the trade negotiations with China back in the day—have you noticed?

So, having experienced a trade war once, can we gain any benefits from it? Can we make money trading cryptocurrencies?

First, let's answer the first question: why does the US want to buy Greenland?

This isn't the first time the US has considered purchasing Greenland.

In 1867, the year Alaska was purchased, the US State Department studied the feasibility of buying Greenland.

In 1946, after WWII, President Truman officially proposed to Denmark to buy Greenland for 100 million dollars in gold, but was rejected.

In 2019, President Trump publicly expressed interest in buying Greenland again, sparking diplomatic tensions, but it reflected a high level of US strategic interest in the island.

In 2026, Trump again expressed a desire to buy Greenland.

So, what exactly is on Greenland that makes the US so eager to acquire it?

Future trade toll station: As Arctic ice melts, new Arctic routes—shortest maritime passages connecting Asia, Europe, and North America—are becoming viable.

Who controls Greenland, controls a "toll station" in future global trade routes.

Missile defense and surveillance: Greenland's geographic position is excellent, situated between North America and Russia, making it a perfect outpost for monitoring cross-polar missile threats.

The US already has Thule Air Base there, the most important US military base in the Arctic, equipped with missile warning radars, directly related to homeland security.

Scarce resources:

Rare earth minerals: Greenland has one of the world's largest undeveloped rare earth deposits.

Rare earths are critical for manufacturing fighter jets, missiles, electric vehicles, chips, and smartphones.

Currently, the global rare earth supply chain heavily depends on China. The US hopes to control Greenland to establish an independent rare earth supply system and ensure national security.

Energy reserves: The island and surrounding waters are rich in oil, natural gas, uranium, as well as gold and diamonds.

Melting ice makes these previously hard-to-access resources reachable.

Essentially, the US's interest in Greenland is preparing for the future global order.

In their view, this island is not only a shield against missile threats but also a key to controlling high-tech resources and global shipping arteries.

Now, let's move to the second question: how long will the tariff negotiations last?

First, the conclusion: Trump's tariff pressure is a means, not an end. Its goal is to bring other countries back to the negotiating table.

Before analyzing the EU tariff war, let's review how long China's trade war lasted.

First phase: Pressure and confrontation

February 4, 2025: The US announced an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, marking the start.

April 2-10, 2025: The US, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), escalated tariffs on China, peaking at 125% in some sectors.

China's countermeasures: China immediately announced retaliatory tariffs on US goods (including soybeans, energy, automobiles) at equivalent levels and threatened export controls on rare earths.

May 10-12, 2025: Negotiators held closed-door talks in Geneva.

Result: A "90-day ceasefire" consensus was reached. The US reduced IEEPA tariffs to 10%, and China similarly lowered tariffs, easing tensions for the first time.

Second phase: Return to negotiations, benefit exchange

June 2025: Leaders of both sides held phone talks, agreeing to restart high-level trade negotiations, followed by multiple rounds of consultations in London.

November 1, 2025: The White House announced a "comprehensive economic and trade relationship agreement" with China.

China's commitments: Suspend export controls on rare earths and related technologies; halt retaliatory tariffs; agree to purchase large quantities of US soybeans (at least 25 million tons annually) over the next three years.

US commitments: Lower tariffs related to fentanyl issues; suspend Section 301 investigations into Chinese shipbuilding; extend some tariff exemptions until November 2026.

Thus, the trade war that started in February 2025 ended on November 1, after 270 days.

After the trade war ended, the Nasdaq hit new highs within weeks, and BTC approached 120,000 again just as the trade war was winding down—only to fall below 101,000 shortly after.

Historically, each trade war has been an opportunity—though it takes over a year to play out, with roughly 30% gains.

So, how long will the EU's tariff war last?

Trade wars are essentially a game of attrition—whichever side can't hold out will return to negotiations first.

In China, 4-6 months of resistance is typical; the EU is likely to resume negotiations in about the same timeframe.

I asked Google AI, and it predicts this round of tariffs will end around July-August this year, because the EU-US relationship is unlikely to break completely, and a compromise is possible.

For example: allowing US investments in Greenland.

Okay, now let's discuss the third question:

Is this market decline temporary or sustainable? Are there opportunities?

As previously mentioned, after the end of the tariff war, BTC and US stocks mostly hit new highs.

This market rally may not reach new highs again, but the black swan event caused by the tariff war—an external shock—could rebound once the tension eases or subsides.

Since the tariff war began in February, BTC has dropped 25%. Recently, it might shift from a rebound to a decline.

I can only say: in cases of significant drops, consider bottom-fishing; for now, stay cautious.

Wait for major events to settle before buying more, and look for rebounds.

My conclusion: this market decline is only temporary, not sustainable. The timeframe is about six months, revolving around the tariff war cycle of rise and fall.

Basically, we're back to the scene of Trump’s K-line chart—volatile and unpredictable.

I can only advise brothers to increase their margin to avoid losing positions on sudden swings.

Finally, a plug for my community: join the community, then manage and join small groups.

TG: