Geopolitical shifts and the economic logic of the crypto market: What does Pax mean

Recent political changes in Venezuela have attracted market attention, leading to a significant rebound in Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to the latest data, BTC is currently at $91.17K, down -1.98% in the past 24 hours, with a circulating market cap of $1,821.48B; ETH is at $3.10K, down -3.46% in the past 24 hours, with a circulating market cap of $374.33B. However, industry analysts point out that the core logic driving the trend of crypto assets is not geopolitical politics itself, but the underlying economic policies and liquidity changes behind it.

The Real Considerations of Energy Strategy and Economic Policies

The decision-making direction of political leaders often reflects their priorities in economic management. According to analysis, U.S. policymakers’ control over energy costs, inflation rates, and credit availability has a greater impact on voters’ economic expectations than geopolitical narratives. The strategic significance of Venezuela’s oil reserves lies in their direct impact on energy costs for U.S. consumers.

A decline in oil prices combined with rising nominal GDP usually reinforces the economic optimism of ordinary voters. Improvements in this macro environment often become key triggers for the rise of high-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). Pax signifies that under the current international order framework, major powers leverage economic tools to ensure market stability and ample liquidity, thereby creating upward space for risk assets.

The True Signal of Market Sentiment

On-chain data shows that the current market does not exhibit signs of panic selling. Market sentiment indicators have entered a neutral zone for the first time since late October last year, indicating that investors’ views on the macro environment are relatively balanced. This is not due to a single geopolitical event but a collective response to credit growth and liquidity expectations.

The rebound of Bitcoin and Ethereum is more accurately a reflection of investors’ expectations regarding USD liquidity and policy tilt. When policy orientation favors loose credit and stimulus consumption, high-volatility assets represented by cryptocurrencies tend to attract more capital inflows.

Macro Factors Dominate Market Logic

While technical and emotional fluctuations exist, the underlying driving force always points to macroeconomic fundamentals. Inflation expectations, interest rate trends, government spending plans—these factors influence the crypto market far more than isolated geopolitical news.

The future price trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum will mainly depend on nominal GDP growth, consumer price index, and central bank attitudes toward liquidity—not on the moral evaluation of the events themselves. Investors should focus on policy intentions rather than surface narratives to accurately grasp market shifts.

When Pax signifies a stable policy environment and abundant liquidity, risk assets often present allocation opportunities.