#高盛关注预测市场 2026, why is the prediction market expected to explode in popularity?

The first and most crucial point is that this year is the World Cup year. What does that mean? As a top global sporting event, the World Cup always attracts a massive number of fans and gamblers. During past tournaments, whether through official betting or underground gambling, betting volumes have surged dramatically. You have to believe in the faith and betting instincts of fans and gamblers. Compared to traditional gambling, which has many issues, betting in prediction markets is much freer. You can buy and sell at any time, adjust your bets at will, just like trading cryptocurrencies—highly flexible. This is incredibly attractive to those familiar with gambling but new to prediction markets. So you see, on one hand, the World Cup brings huge traffic and betting demand; on the other hand, prediction markets outperform traditional gambling in experience and flexibility. In this regard, it’s hard not to be popular!
Second, the regulatory compliance issues of prediction markets have also been addressed. Regulation has always been a sword of Damocles hanging over crypto applications, and prediction markets are no exception. But in 2025, the US stance on prediction markets changed dramatically. On one hand, Polymarket made great efforts to seek compliance, adjusting product design to avoid being classified as illegal binary options, and ultimately re-entered the US market. On the other hand, Kalshi, which fully embraces a decentralized compliance approach, has achieved a series of victories in regulatory battles. It is this joint effort by these two that has paved the way for the legalization of prediction markets in the US. Only when the path is clear will mainstream institutions dare to step in confidently. Regulation has shifted from an obstacle to a red carpet, which is the prerequisite for the story to continue. Therefore, more and more traditional institutions will enter prediction markets—after all, who doesn’t want to make money, especially when it’s legal?
The second reason we believe prediction markets will explode is the push from traditional institutions and their compliance implementation.
Another key point is that this World Cup is jointly hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico. The focus here is the US, where prediction platforms are clearly compliant. This brings us back to a familiar question. It means that those who previously could only gamble underground will now turn to legal, transparent prediction platforms. So why are we confident that the funds and users from underground gambling will flow massively into prediction markets? This naturally leads to the third reason: underground gambling is too deep, full of scandals, insider deals, and often involves black money that can’t be seen in the light. The likely outcome is: not only will you fail to make money, but even if you do, the money may not be clean. In contrast, all transactions on prediction platforms are open and transparent, eliminating issues like black money. In the past, people chose underground gambling perhaps because of the extremely high odds, but now prediction platforms can meet that demand, with much lower fees. If a prediction platform charges a 2% fee, underground gambling platforms might charge 10%. Compared to that, the black market route of underground gambling is basically no longer viable.
The fourth reason is that we need to see clearly who the big backers behind prediction markets are—who is really backing these markets with real money. A group of unknown players can’t compare to a major figure pouring in real funds. Moreover, the two key backers supporting prediction markets are not ordinary people.
The first is America’s first son, Little Trump. Around August 2025, Donald Trump Jr., through his venture capital fund 1789 Capital, invested tens of millions of dollars into Polymarket and joined its advisory board. The second is the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). In October 2025, ICE announced plans to invest up to $2 billion to acquire a stake in Polymarket, valuing it at about $8 billion. Just a few months later, Polymarket’s valuation has already risen to $12 billion. This is more than just money; it sends a strong signal: prediction markets are entering the mainstream. But entering the mainstream also comes at a cost. Let me ask you: do you think Little Trump and ICE chose to invest in prediction markets this year just by coincidence? When you combine the World Cup with prediction markets, it’s clear this is a conspiracy between institutions and platforms. Institutions and backers won’t allow their supported prediction platforms to fail, and faced with such a historic opportunity, prediction markets won’t leave themselves an escape route. They will go all in—this battle only allows success, not failure. Otherwise, do you think Polymarket has persisted silently for so many years just for nothing? It’s all for this one opportunity—to seize a chance to skyrocket overnight.