#IranTradeSanctions .

​🚢 Trade Volume and the "Shadow" Economy
​Despite the reinstatement of comprehensive UN "snapback" sanctions, Iran’s oil export volume has shown a resilient, albeit strained, trajectory. Currently, export volumes are estimated to fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 million barrels per day (mbpd). However, this volume is largely decoupled from the transparent global market. It is sustained by a "Shadow Fleet" of aging tankers that operate under flags of convenience, utilizing "ship-to-ship" transfers to bypass satellite surveillance. While the volume remains significant enough to keep the regime afloat, it is far below the 2.5 mbpd capacity seen during pre-sanction eras, representing a substantial loss in total market share.

​💸 Liquidity Crises and Financial Isolation
​The most crippling aspect of the current sanctions regime is the systematic erosion of liquidity. With Iran effectively severed from the SWIFT banking network, the country faces a desperate shortage of "hard currency" (USD and EUR). This lack of liquidity has forced Iran into archaic trade models, such as barter systems—trading crude oil for consumer goods or raw materials from partners like Russia and China. Domestically, this has caused the Iranian Rial to enter a state of near-perpetual devaluation, where the lack of liquid foreign reserves prevents the central bank from stabilizing the currency, leading to a massive liquidity trap that stifles local business investment.

​📉 Price Discounts and the "Sanction Tax"
​The price of Iranian crude is currently dictated by a steep "Sanction Discount." Because buyers—primarily independent refineries in Asia—take on significant legal and financial risks by flouting Western sanctions, they demand heavy concessions. Data suggests that Iran is forced to sell its oil at a discount ranging from $12 to $18 per barrel below the global Brent Crude benchmark. In percentage terms, this equates to a 20% to 30% reduction in potential revenue. This "Sanction Tax" ensures that even when global oil prices rise, the Iranian treasury does not reap the full benefits, leading to a widening fiscal deficit that is currently estimated at over 15% of the country's GDP.

​⚠️ Inflationary Pressure and Macro Impact
​The convergence of low liquidity and discounted export prices has catalyzed a domestic inflation rate that hovers between 55% and 65%. This hyper-inflationary environment has gutted the purchasing power of the middle class. From a macro perspective, the percentage of the population living below the poverty line has reportedly increased by 12% since the 2025 sanctions escalation. The government’s inability to access liquid assets means it cannot subsidize basic goods, leading to a volatile social atmosphere where economic grievances frequently translate into civil unrest.

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