XRP Price Prediction 2026: Holding the triple bottom at $1.88, where will ETF funds go after the pullback?

According to Gate market data, as of January 26, 2026, the trading price of XRP is approximately $1.87, a slight decrease of 1.47% over the past 24 hours.

Market data shows that XRP’s price has recently tested around $1.88 repeatedly, forming a potential triple bottom technical pattern. Meanwhile, subtle changes in ETF capital flows add new uncertainties to the market.

Current Market Snapshot

According to Gate market data, as of January 26, 2026, XRP exhibits complex market characteristics. The current price is $1.87, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $102.78 million, and a market capitalization of $114.58 billion, accounting for 6.06% of the entire cryptocurrency market.

In terms of price dynamics, XRP has declined 3.58% over the past week, but over a longer period of one month, it still maintains a 2.00% increase. This short-term pressure coupled with medium-term stability reflects market divergence and competition at the current price levels.

From a supply perspective, XRP’s circulating supply is 60.85 billion coins, accounting for about 60.85% of the total supply of 99.98 billion coins. This established release rhythm provides some predictability for the market.

Technical Pattern Analysis: The Battle of the Triple Bottom Support

On the chart, XRP has formed a clear triple bottom pattern around $1.88. This technical pattern is generally seen as a strong support signal, indicating persistent buying demand at this price level. When the price tests the same area three times without breaking below effectively, it often suggests that selling pressure is gradually exhausted. Successfully holding this line could lay the foundation for a subsequent rebound.

The key resistance level is around $1.95, which is where the recent downward trend line has repeatedly suppressed the price rebound. Once broken, the next target will be in the $2.03 to $2.06 range. Conversely, if the support at $1.88 ultimately fails, the market could further decline toward support levels near $1.80 or even $1.77. The current price is at this critical technical decision point.

ETF Capital Flows: From Frenzy to Calm

The ETF market offers a unique perspective on institutional sentiment. In 2025, XRP-related ETF products set remarkable records—accumulating a net inflow of $3.3 billion throughout the year. More notably, its spot ETF products even set a record of “zero net outflow days” since launch. This near-extreme demand consistency highlights a solid and ongoing demand for XRP through compliant institutional channels.

However, a subtle shift occurred in early 2026. On January 21, 2026, Grayscale’s XRP Trust experienced significant outflows, with a single-day redemption of $55 million, about 25.7% of the fund’s assets under management at that time. This large redemption indicates that some institutional investors are reassessing risk exposure, especially after XRP’s volatility earlier in the year. The change in capital flow is not an isolated event but a reflection of evolving market sentiment.

On-Chain Fundamentals: Supply Tightening and Institutional Positioning

On-chain data reveals deeper market dynamics. According to Cointelegraph, XRP’s supply on exchanges has fallen to its lowest level in eight years. Specifically, the exchange-held XRP balance dropped from 3.76 billion coins on October 8, 2025, to about 1.6 billion coins by the end of 2025, a reduction of 2.16 billion coins within just two months.

This sharp supply contraction has dual implications: on one hand, it indicates that long-term holders are not strongly inclined to sell and are transferring assets to private wallets; on the other hand, it reduces immediate market sell pressure, creating favorable conditions for price increases.

Some analysts point out, “The ETF is draining XRP from exchanges, tightening liquidity.” This structural change could further solidify XRP’s position as an institutional-grade asset in 2026.

Multiple Forecasts and Market Outlook

Regarding XRP’s future price, there are various predictions. Based on Gate’s comprehensive data, analysts believe the average price of XRP in 2026 could be around $1.88, with a volatility range estimated between $1.35 and $2.50. Longer-term projections suggest that by 2031, XRP could reach $4.17, representing approximately 101.00% potential growth from current levels.

Different institutions’ forecasts vary significantly. Some more optimistic models, such as DeepSeek AI’s prediction, even suggest XRP could reach $10 by the end of 2026. Others are more conservative, estimating the 2026 price range between $3.29 and $5.26.

These differences reflect varying assumptions underlying the prediction models—some focus on technical analysis, others on adoption rates, and some consider macroeconomic factors.

Risks and Opportunities Coexist

The market must remain vigilant to multiple risks amid potential opportunities. ETF capital flows could reverse, and historically, capital driven by narrative enthusiasm may quickly turn around when sentiment shifts.

Regulatory changes remain an unpredictable factor. Although Ripple has made some progress in its legal dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the overall regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is still evolving.

From a market structure perspective, despite ongoing institutional inflows, on-chain data shows that some long-term holders (addresses holding coins for over a year) shifted to net selling in Q4 2025. This subtle battle between “smart money” and “steadfast hands” could increase market complexity.

Macroeconomic factors are equally important. Changes in global risk appetite, liquidity conditions, and geopolitical developments could all influence the performance of cryptocurrencies, including XRP.

As the market focuses on the triple bottom at $1.88, XRP’s exchange supply has quietly fallen to an eight-year low, with only about 1.6 billion coins remaining. Meanwhile, the Grayscale XRP Trust was redeemed for over a quarter of its assets in one day, with $55 million leaving this once-popular product. Every line drawn on the chart behind the price reflects the tug-of-war between institutional funds and the conviction of long-term holders. The market is waiting for a clear signal—whether an upward breakout to start a new journey or a breakdown to seek deeper support. The outcome of this battle around $1.88 could define XRP’s overall narrative in 2026.