Gold breaks $5,000, silver surpasses $107: a turning point in global asset allocation

January 26, 2026, the gold market achieved an epic leap: spot gold prices first broke through the $5,000 per ounce mark, with an intraday high of $5,072.53. On the same day, spot silver performed even more impressively, soaring over 6% intraday and temporarily surpassing $107/ounce. This is not just a simple price increase but a sign that a deep structural shift is occurring in global asset allocation logic.

Historic Breakthrough

The gold and silver markets created a historic moment in January 2026. On January 26, Beijing time, international spot gold prices first broke through the $5,000 per ounce threshold, reaching the highest level recorded in the global gold market. Silver’s performance was even more astonishing; after breaking the $100 mark at the end of trading on the 23rd, silver futures opened higher and continued to rise during the Asia-Pacific trading session on the 26th, once reaching over $108/ounce.

Since the beginning of this month, silver prices have increased by over 50%, potentially marking the best monthly performance since December 1979. Such a rally can no longer be described as a simple “bull market”; instead, a new market paradigm is forming. In terms of speed, the time taken for gold to break through the integer mark is getting shorter and shorter. From $4,000 per ounce to surpassing $5,000, it took just over three months.

Driving Factors

This historic breakthrough was not driven by a single factor but resulted from multiple structural changes working together.

Geopolitical tensions are the most direct catalyst. Recent conflicts from Greenland, Venezuela to the Middle East have heightened geopolitical risks. Last weekend, U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canada, reigniting concerns about global economic uncertainty. This uncertainty further highlights gold’s role as a hedge against risk.

The “nuclear” buying by global central banks is another key factor. Goldman Sachs estimates that the current monthly global central bank gold purchases are about 60 tons, far above the pre-2022 average of 17 tons per month. Especially, central banks in emerging markets continue to shift foreign exchange reserves into gold assets. Poland’s central bank has approved a plan to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, which will increase its total gold reserves to 700 tons.

A weakening dollar also supports the rise in gold prices. At the start of trading on the 26th, the dollar index fell 0.4% to 97.11, hitting a four-month low. The Fed’s rate-cut cycle has weakened the dollar, reducing the interest income from dollar assets, thereby lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Unique Attributes

It is worth noting that, besides safe-haven demand, silver’s recent rise is also supported by its unique supply and demand fundamentals.

The silver market has been in a state of supply shortage for five consecutive years. Data from the Silver Institute shows that in 2025, global silver demand reached 36,700 tons, while supply was only 31,700 tons, creating a supply-demand gap of 5,000 tons.

Increasing industrial demand is a major reason for the rise in silver prices. Silver plays a crucial role in photovoltaic cells, with the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry becoming a core driver of increased silver demand. Additionally, the booming new energy vehicle industry also injects strong momentum into silver demand. According to the Silver Institute, in 2024, the unit silver consumption of hybrid and pure electric vehicles increased by 21% and 71%, respectively, compared to traditional cars.

For many investors, gold prices have become prohibitively high, and silver has become an affordable choice to ride the wave of the precious metals bull market.

Market Outlook

Faced with historic high prices, market opinions on the future trend of precious metals are divided and full of expectations.

Several international investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts. Union Private Bank of Switzerland expects gold to have another strong year, setting a year-end target of $5,200 per ounce. Goldman Sachs recently raised its December 2026 gold price forecast from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce. Nikki Hills, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP Group, stated that the current gold rally is not a speculative top, and this year’s gold price could reach $5,400.

For silver, some analysts have given even higher expectations. William, Managing Director of Solomon Global, believes that the potential target for silver in 2026 could be $120 per ounce. However, some institutions have issued warnings about silver’s future trend. William said that silver’s price volatility will increase, and daily price swings could reach 10% or more.

Lazakarzada, a macroeconomic market analyst at FXCM, pointed out that it is currently difficult to judge how much silver can still rise or how long it can stay at these high levels, as supply issues remain the biggest constraint.

Shift in Trading Logic

This round of precious metals bull market is fundamentally different from previous ones, reflecting profound changes in the global macro environment. The current shake-up of the fiat currency system is the core reason supporting precious metals’ rise. The erosion of the Federal Reserve’s independence, coupled with the accelerated expansion of U.S. fiscal and government debt, has propelled the de-dollarization process. Goldman Sachs believes that the demand foundation for gold has broken through traditional channels. Since early 2025, holdings of Western gold ETFs have increased by about 500 tons. Meanwhile, new investment methods such as high-net-worth family physical gold purchases for macro risk hedging are becoming increasingly important sources of gold demand.

Market demand for hedging against global macro and policy risks has become “sticky,” substantially raising the starting point for gold prices this year. Goldman Sachs believes that the hedging demand for global macro policy risks, such as fiscal sustainability, will continue into 2026. The speed at which gold prices broke through the integer mark indicates that the market’s pricing logic for precious metals is changing. It took 12 and a half years for gold to go from $1,000 to $2,000 per ounce; from $4,000 to $5,000, it took just over three months.

As gold shines at the historic high of $5,000 and silver breaks through the psychological barrier of $107, the precious metals market has opened a new chapter. Central banks continue to expand their gold reserves, global ETF holdings keep rising, and industrial demand along with safe-haven funds are jointly driving silver prices to their best monthly performance in nearly fifty years. Union Private Bank of Switzerland sets the year-end target for gold at $5,200, while Goldman Sachs further targets $5,400. Meanwhile, Solomon Global predicts silver could reach $120 per ounce.

On the Gate platform, investors can track the latest prices of gold and silver contracts at any time and seize trading opportunities in this historic market.