Ethereum (ETH) Latest Price Prediction: In a bearish pattern, will $2,500 be the next stop?

According to Gate market data, as of January 26, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is trading at approximately $2,864.43, down 2.84% in the past 24 hours. Over the past week, the decline has been even deeper, reaching 10.16%. This drop has brought ETH’s price back nearly 42% from its all-time high of $4,946.05 set in August 2025. Currently, technical analysts point out that ETH is forming a rare bearish technical pattern on the weekly chart, which may indicate a risk of further decline toward the $2,500 region before any potential recovery.

Key Technical Pattern Analysis: Formation of a Bearish Flag

From a technical analysis perspective, recent price movements of Ethereum outline a potential “bearish flag” pattern. This pattern typically appears after a sharp decline (“flagpole”), followed by a period of consolidation within a narrow, slightly upward-sloping channel (“flag” itself). This pattern is generally seen as a continuation signal of a downtrend.

• “Flagpole”: Corresponds to the significant drop starting from the high in Q4 2025.
• “Flag”: Corresponds to recent price oscillations within the $2,800 - $3,100 range.

Currently, ETH’s price has clearly broken below this consolidation zone’s lower boundary and continues to trade below the weekly Supertrend indicator, reinforcing short-term bearish sentiment. If confirmed, the theoretical downside target could be around $2,500. This level also aligns with key support/resistance pivot zones identified by tools like Murrey Math Lines.

Fundamental Factors Intertwined: Risks and Resilience Coexist

Behind the price fluctuations are complex fundamental factors at play.

Short-term Pressure Factors:

Recently, macroeconomic uncertainties have cast a shadow over the crypto market. Geopolitical tensions and reassessments of monetary policy paths by major economies have increased volatility in global risk assets. Traditional financial markets, especially fluctuations in government bond yields, also indirectly influence risk appetite and capital flows in the crypto space.

Long-term Fundamental Support:

Despite short-term pressures, Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals remain resilient, potentially laying the groundwork for future price recovery:

• ETF inflows continue: Since the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs, net inflows have exceeded $12 billion, indicating stable institutional and traditional capital demand for ETH.
• Healthy supply dynamics: Large amounts of ETH are staked or locked in smart contracts, keeping circulating supply on centralized exchanges at multi-year lows. From a supply-demand perspective, this reduces immediate selling pressure.
• Growing network applications: Ethereum dominates in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, capturing over 60% market share. Top global financial institutions continue building and deploying applications on its network, reinforcing its role as a core settlement layer.
• High staking participation: Over 30% of circulating ETH is staked on the Beacon Chain, reflecting long-term holder confidence and effectively locking in some liquidity.

Latest Gate Data and Price Forecast Reference

Based on the latest market data from Gate (as of January 26, 2026), we can analyze the current market situation quantitatively:

• Current price: $2,864.43
• 24-hour trading volume: $670.32 million
• Market cap: $347.94 billion
• Key price levels:
  • 24-hour high: $2,948.5
  • 24-hour low: $2,787.25
  • All-time high: $4,946.05
  • All-time low: $0.4329

From the pattern analysis, if the bearish flag target is realized, ETH could test the critical support around $2,500 in the coming weeks. This zone may also become a battleground for bulls and bears. If ETH can stabilize here and generate a reversal signal (e.g., completing a larger timeframe “inverse head and shoulders” pattern), it could mark the start of a rebound in 2026.

It’s worth noting that based on historical market data models, the median annual average price forecast for ETH in 2026 is approximately $2,874.98, with potential volatility ranging from $1,926.23 to $3,593.72. Longer-term projections suggest that by 2031, based on various growth models, the price could reach as high as $5,641.44. This highlights the high volatility and long-term growth potential characteristic of the cryptocurrency market.

Summary

In summary, Ethereum’s price faces a critical technical test in the short term. The rare bearish flag pattern combined with the Supertrend indicator points to a risk of further decline toward the $2,500 region. Traders and investors should closely monitor price action between $2,800 and $2,500. However, technical analysis is only one tool for market decision-making. Strong network fundamentals, ongoing institutional capital inflows, and healthy supply dynamics form a solid foundation for ETH’s long-term value. Short-term market sentiment fluctuations often diverge from long-term value discovery.