XRP Price Prediction 2026: After Seven Consecutive Declines, Is Ripple Approaching a Critical Turning Point?

According to Gate market data, as of January 26, 2026, XRP is currently priced at $1.87, down 2.32% in the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of approximately $113.586 billion, ranking fifth among global digital assets. The sustained decline over the past week has pushed the price into a critical support zone.

Meanwhile, the US XRP spot ETF maintained stable net inflows last week, with a single-day net inflow of $7.16 million on January 21, indicating that institutional funds have not exited the market.

The Battle Between Bulls and Bears

The current XRP market is playing out a delicate contest between steadfast institutional holdings and retail panic selling. Beneath the price decline, the internal market structure is undergoing profound changes.

According to Gate market data, as of January 26, XRP’s latest quote is $1.87, down 2.32% in 24 hours. This level is well below the early 2026 highs, and market sentiment has slipped into the “extreme panic” zone. Notably, the positive/negative sentiment ratio has continued to decline from 1.873 on January 20 to about 1.794, reflecting growing pessimism about Ripple’s prospects.

Contrasting sharply with retail panic, institutional funds are steadily flowing in via ETF channels. On January 23, XRP spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of $3.43 million, with Bitwise XRP ETF contributing all of it. Since its launch, XRP ETFs have set an astonishing record of no net outflow days. This consistent institutional demand is rare in financial product history and provides solid support for the price.

Key Technical Levels and On-Chain Data

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP is at a critical decision point. The price has formed a clear support zone between $1.88 and $1.89, a level that has successfully held multiple times since XRP broke below $2.00. Careful observation reveals that the market has built a well-defined base area, which technical analysts might describe as a triple bottom support zone. Each test of this zone attracts buyers, and although subsequent rebounds are limited, the support’s validity is confirmed.

On-chain data offers further insights. Since mid-December 2025, the number of whale wallets holding XRP has increased by over 25,000 addresses, reaching a new monthly high. This growth spans all address ranges from the top 0.1% to the top 10%, indicating that funds of all sizes are adding to their holdings or entering the market anew. The total number of XRP wallets has grown from 7.41 million to over 7.51 million, with approximately 99,000 new addresses added in just the past month. These on-chain indicators suggest that despite weak price performance, network adoption and holder base are steadily expanding.

Regulatory and Fundamental Developments

Beyond market factors, XRP’s fundamentals have recently seen positive progress that could drive long-term valuation. In regulation, Ripple has received preliminary approval for an Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license from the Luxembourg Financial Industry Supervisory Commission. This development lays the groundwork for Ripple to offer broader payment services within the EU.

Coupled with its earlier FCA license in the UK, Ripple is establishing a dual regulatory framework, enabling more efficient expansion in key European financial markets. Real-world applications are also accelerating. Dubai recently launched a government-backed real estate trading platform allowing investors to buy and trade real estate shares via blockchain, with XRP used directly as a settlement medium. In this application, XRP is no longer just a trading asset but a core settlement tool for property share transactions. Leveraging XRP Ledger’s high throughput and low transaction costs, property token transfers and settlements can be nearly real-time.

Extreme Market Sentiment and Historical Patterns

The current extreme market sentiment is remarkable, but historical data shows such extremes often signal trend reversals. Reviewing recent market behavior reveals some interesting patterns.

On January 2, 2026, XRP rapidly recovered from previous losses amid extreme panic, then surged approximately 29% in a short period to reach a yearly high of $2.41. A similar scenario occurred on January 18, with sentiment collapsing followed by a quick rebound. These cases suggest that when the market is uniformly bearish, space opens for a counter-move.

In terms of trading volume, market participation remains active. Based on CoinMarketCap data, XRP has consistently ranked among the top three in platform heat rankings over the past week. On January 24, XRP was ranked 3rd with a price of $1.92 and a 24-hour increase of 0.65%. On January 22, it was also 3rd with a price of $1.94 and a 24-hour increase of 2.68%. These rankings reflect steady user interest, indicating that despite short-term price pressure, attention to XRP’s long-term prospects remains high.

Future Price Scenarios

Based on current market structure and various influencing factors, XRP could follow several different price paths in the coming months. Here is an analysis of possible scenarios:

The first is a consolidation phase, with about a 50% probability. In this case, XRP might fluctuate within a broad range between $1.80 and $2.50. This path would be triggered by an uncertain macro environment, lack of a clear catalyst, and ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

The second is a bullish breakout, with about a 30% probability. If clear macroeconomic positive signals emerge or Ripple achieves breakthrough progress in key commercial partnerships, XRP could successfully break above and stabilize at the $2.50 resistance, challenging the $3.00 psychological level.

The third is a bearish decline, with about a 20% probability. If global risk assets deteriorate again and the overall crypto market faces stricter regulation, XRP could effectively break below the key support at $1.79, testing the $1.50 zone.

Long-term, some analysts remain optimistic about XRP’s future. Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg predicts XRP could reach new price highs by 2026. He believes that with expanding utility and ETF demand, a valuation of ten dollars within a three- to four-year timeframe is achievable.

Seasonal and Macro Factors

In addition to asset-specific factors, seasonal and macroeconomic environments may influence XRP’s price trajectory. Historical data offers interesting perspectives. Over the past 12 years, XRP’s average January gain has been 3%, but the median return is a decline of 7.8%, indicating January performance often underperforms expectations. On the macro front, markets are closely watching Federal Reserve policy moves and major tech earnings reports. Recent crypto market corrections coincide with these macro events.

Furthermore, the legislative process of the US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act could have a profound impact on XRP. A key provision states that tokens listed on US exchanges as primary assets before January 1, 2026, will be reclassified as “non-auxiliary assets.” If passed, XRP would gain clear regulatory status, removing the long-standing “security” controversy that has hindered its development. This regulatory clarity could serve as a catalyst for institutional capital inflows.

As Brad Garlinghouse is scheduled to speak at Davos, Switzerland, market sentiment for a recovery is rising. If panic indicators stabilize further, XRP’s price structure could lay the groundwork for the next upward move. XRP remains in the top three in Gate’s heat rankings, reflecting sustained high market engagement. On technical charts, XRP has formed a noteworthy dragonfly doji at the end of its downtrend, often seen as a potential trend reversal signal. The price has found strong support near $1.88, forming a clear triple bottom pattern. Ultimately, the market will decide whether XRP continues to consolidate within a narrow range or breaks through key resistance aided by regulatory news and institutional inflows.