Bitcoin ETF capital flow shifts: from a record inflow to over $1.3 billion outflow within a week

According to the latest data from SoSoValue, during the just-concluded trading week (January 19 to January 23), the US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a massive net outflow of $1.33 billion, marking the highest weekly outflow since February 2025.

In the previous week, the same Bitcoin ETF achieved its best weekly performance since the market crash in October 2025, with net inflows reaching approximately $1.4 billion.

Data Mutation

Market sentiment experienced a dramatic shift in a short period. Just one week apart, the capital flow of Bitcoin spot ETFs plummeted from a high point, recording a record-breaking large net outflow.

According to Gate platform market data, as of January 26, 2026, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) was $87,768.8, down 1.39% in the past 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) was priced at $2,864.26, down 2.81% over the same period. Data shows that traditional institutional products are increasingly influencing market sentiment in the short term.

Dramatic Reversal in Capital Flows

Once considered a “stabilizer” of market confidence, Bitcoin spot ETFs are now experiencing capital flows more volatile than the cryptocurrency market itself. In the third week of January 2026, the market still appeared optimistic. The US spot Bitcoin ETF attracted a total net inflow of about $1.4 billion, hitting a nearly three-month high, with significant concentrated inflows into leading products.

The reversal came quickly. According to statistics, in the subsequent trading week (January 19 to 23), these ETFs not only failed to continue inflows but recorded a net outflow of as much as $1.33 billion.

This sudden change is directly reflected in the specific flow of funds. The previous week’s “main money gatherers”—BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC—both turned into major outflows. IBIT had a weekly net outflow of $537 million, and FBTC had a net outflow of $451 million. Meanwhile, the total net asset value of Bitcoin ETFs also declined to approximately $115.88 billion.

Market Impact and Price Performance

The large-scale withdrawal of funds quickly propagated to the price level. Although Bitcoin whales (wallet addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC) continued to increase their holdings, reaching a four-month high, this did not prevent short-term price declines.

The market has begun to reassess the sustainability of ETF capital inflows. Some analyses suggest that if macroeconomic uncertainties persist, Bitcoin ETFs may face phased corrections in the short term.

Signals from the derivatives market have also become subtle. On one hand, open interest in Bitcoin futures shows a slow recovery in risk appetite; on the other hand, leverage has risen to multi-month highs, increasing market sensitivity to sharp two-way volatility.

Deep Causes of the Mutation

This rapid reversal in capital flows is not caused by a single factor but results from the combined influence of several key forces.

The most direct reason stems from hedge fund strategy adjustments. Analyses indicate that the profitability of the previously popular “basis trading” strategy has significantly narrowed. The annualized return from the Bitcoin spot and futures price spread has fallen from about 17% a year ago to below 5%, approaching short-term US Treasury yields.

The declining yield attractiveness has prompted short-term hedge funds seeking absolute returns to withdraw their funds. Although they may only account for 10% to 20% of ETF holdings, their concentrated actions are sufficient to dominate short-term capital flows.

Macroeconomic uncertainty is also rising. Recent repeated tensions in US-European trade, along with the surge in gold prices breaking $5,000 per ounce, reflect risk-averse sentiment, putting pressure on risk assets. The synchronized correction of BTC and ETH prices on the Gate platform also reflects this broad cautious mood.

Future Market Trends

Faced with sharp capital outflows and market corrections, how will the market evolve? Divergent views have emerged.

Some analysts hold a cautious short-term outlook. There is a view that in the first half of 2026, the market may experience a “risk liquidation event,” leading to increased volatility, with Bitcoin prices potentially falling back to the $60,000–$65,000 range, and Ethereum testing support at $1,800–$2,000.

However, some institutions remain optimistic about the medium to long term. Fidelity Digital Assets’ research suggests that as more countries and companies incorporate digital assets into their balance sheets, the traditional four-year cycle of cryptocurrencies may be broken, possibly ushering in a sustained multi-year “super cycle.” Analyst Tom Lee has also stated that, based on Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing institutional adoption, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains positive.

As for Ethereum, its narrative is still evolving. The tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is viewed by institutions as a significant growth driver, with Ethereum serving as the foundational layer in this field. Technical analysis indicates that if the ETH/BTC exchange rate can effectively break through key neckline levels, significant relative gains could be realized in 2026.

Despite the short-term market sentiment being disturbed by ETF capital outflows, this does not mean the end of the market. It may be a healthy correction that lays the groundwork for future development. The fundamental narrative of the cryptocurrency market—including institutional adoption, technological innovation, and macroeconomic hedging—remains unchanged. The market is learning to coexist with high-volatility institutional tools like ETFs, and each intense capital movement serves as a stress test for this new relationship. For ordinary investors, understanding the complex drivers behind capital flows is far more important than simply following daily inflow and outflow data.