XRP price drops below $2: Why strong ETF demand and network activity can't stop the decline?

Recently, the overall cryptocurrency market has been under pressure, with Ripple (XRP) price movements attracting particular attention. Despite sustained demand for XRP spot ETFs and strong activity on the XRP ledger network, the XRP price has recently fallen below the key psychological level of $2.00. According to Gate market data, as of January 26, 2026, the latest XRP price is $1.87, down approximately 1.26% in the past 24 hours, with a weekly decline of about 4.33%. This article provides a neutral price analysis of XRP based on the latest market dynamics and Gate platform data, and explores its potential future technical trajectory.

Current Market Performance and Price Status

Since reaching a regional high of approximately $2.41 in mid-January 2026, XRP has entered a correction phase. This pullback is related to broad market sell-offs driven by tense global macroeconomic sentiment, especially concerns over trade policies. Despite positive industry fundamentals, XRP has failed to hold the $2.00 support level.

Based on real-time data from the Gate platform, XRP’s current market cap is approximately $114.4 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $107.8 million. Its price has fluctuated between $1.81 and $1.91 over the past 24 hours. Compared to its all-time high of $3.65 in 2025, there is still a significant distance, but the price has increased notably from its historical low.

Divergence Between Positive Fundamentals and Price Trends

Interestingly, this price correction occurs amid positive signals in XRP’s ecosystem fundamentals, which constitute a primary contradiction in the current market:

• ETF Capital Inflows: U.S. spot XRP ETF products continue to attract institutional funds. Data shows that related ETFs have accumulated net inflows of billions of dollars, indicating that institutional investors’ long-term interest in the asset remains intact. Just last week, global XRP investment products recorded net inflows of tens of millions of dollars.
• Network Activity Reaches High Levels: Network usage activity on the XRP ledger has significantly increased. In late January, daily transaction processing exceeded 2.5 million, reaching a six-month high, reflecting growing practical demand and activity on its underlying blockchain.

However, these positive on-chain data and capital flow signals have not immediately translated into buying momentum to push prices higher. This suggests that, in the current market environment, macro sentiment and technical selling pressure are temporarily dominating short-term price movements.

Key Technical Levels: Support and Resistance

From a technical analysis perspective, identifying key support and resistance levels is crucial for understanding market structure.

• Current Support Zone ($1.78 - $1.85): According to on-chain cost distribution data, the $1.78 to $1.85 range is an important recent cost-intensive zone, with many addresses having purchased XRP near this price. Therefore, this area may form a buying support. Gate market data shows that the current price is testing the upper boundary of this zone.
• Immediate Resistance and Psychological Level ($2.00): The $2.00 level has shifted from previous support to a strong resistance in recent times. To reverse the current downtrend, XRP needs to effectively break above and stabilize above this level.
• Stronger Support Reference ($1.60 - $1.65): If support around $1.78 fails, the next key support zone to watch is around $1.60 to $1.65. This area coincides with the local lows of Q4 2025 and long-term moving average technical support.

Market sentiment indicators show that bearish sentiment has strengthened. XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to recent lows, indicating that downside momentum has not yet been fully exhausted. Bulls need to defend these critical support levels to prevent further declines.

Market Observation Based on Gate Data

Gate platform’s depth data provides additional insights:

• Circulating supply of XRP is 60.85 billion, accounting for approximately 60.85% of the total supply of 99.98 billion.
• Its current market share is about 6.06%, maintaining a leading position among mainstream cryptocurrencies.
• Over a longer cycle, XRP has gained +1.68% over the past 30 days, but has declined -39.51% over the past year, indicating it remains in a significant cyclical adjustment phase.

Latest Price Forecast and Future Outlook for XRP

Any token price forecast must be based on multiple variables and acknowledge inherent uncertainties. Here is a neutral outlook on XRP’s potential future paths:

• Short-term trend (weeks to months): The near-term trend will depend on the effectiveness of the $1.78 - $1.85 support zone. If the price stabilizes here with increased volume, a rebound toward $2.00 and possibly $2.20 could occur. Conversely, a breakdown of this support could see the price drop to $1.65 or even $1.60. Based on Gate research data, the average price of XRP in 2026 may hover around $1.87, with a volatility range estimated between $1.61 and $1.93.
• Medium to long-term outlook (several years to 2031): Long-term prices will depend more on XRP’s actual progress in cross-border payments and adoption by financial institutions, the overall regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, and its integration with traditional financial products like ETFs. Some models based on historical cycles and adoption curves suggest that by 2031, XRP could challenge the $4.00 to $4.62 range. This implies a potential growth from the current $1.87, with a theoretical upside of +83.00%, contingent on highly favorable internal and external conditions.

Despite short-term price pressures, XRP’s ecosystem continues steady development in institutional adoption (via ETFs) and network utility. The current price near $1.87 is at a critical technical decision point. For market participants, closely monitoring price movements, volume changes, and the battle around key technical support levels on major platforms like Gate is more important than simply chasing short-term predictions.