A busy week in macroeconomics with political risks in the United States.

On the agenda, the market enters a sensitive phase for data and statements: durable goods orders on Monday (indicating industrial activity), consumer confidence and manufacturing index on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday with Powell’s press conference, unemployment claims on Thursday, and the Producer Price Index on Friday (inflation at the wholesale level, which usually affects interest rates and the dollar).

Meanwhile, the shutdown issue is gaining momentum again as the January 31 deadline approaches. Tensions have increased following the crisis related to immigration and customs operations and political reactions in Washington, with the budget impasse and funding for the Department of Homeland Security.

The probability of a federal shutdown has also risen significantly, with the Bullish Market site now estimating about a 77% chance of a federal shutdown by January 31, up from much lower levels in previous days.

Sharp fluctuations over a few days. When fiscal policy, Federal Reserve decisions, and inflation rates converge in one week, the likelihood of severe volatility increases, even with stable indicators, as evidenced by the sharp rise in metal prices and non-dollar assets!