#内容挖矿焕新公测开启 The January closing is imminent: Bitcoin may experience its first four consecutive months of decline in over seven years. Why has the safe-haven halo dimmed?

The first month of 2026 is coming to an end, yet Bitcoin remains volatile at low levels. After dropping to around $86,000 over the weekend, it slightly rebounded above $88,000 yesterday. However, compared to mid-month when it rose from about $90,000 to nearly $98,000, Bitcoin's recent rebound has been notably weak.
The market often likens Bitcoin to "digital gold." However, under the dual influence of Trump's tariff policies and Arctic geopolitical tensions, traditional gold prices have steadily broken through the $5,000 per ounce mark, while Bitcoin has failed to strengthen in tandem and remains under pressure. From the current trend, Bitcoin not only struggles to challenge the psychological $100,000 level before the month ends but also faces significant pressure to stay above $90,000. If by month’s end Bitcoin cannot sustain its slight rebound and instead oscillates downward, breaking below $87,000 support, it will face a rare four-month consecutive decline since the second half of 2018—marking over seven years since such a streak. So, what is the current market situation?

Macroeconomic Environment: Multi-Dimensional Uncertainty Intertwines and Pressures
In early 2026, the global financial markets are simultaneously testing from multiple key areas.
First, the Trump administration’s "leverage" diplomacy has intensified market volatility. Continuing and strengthening a "transactional" diplomatic style, Trump has used tariffs as a core lever to achieve political and economic goals, directly disrupting global trade flows and market expectations. His tariff policies are multi-faceted—from raising tariffs on some Korean products to 25%, threatening 100% punitive tariffs on Canadian goods, to exerting tariff pressure on European countries to gain strategic advantages over Greenland. While details involve negotiations and retreats, his unpredictable nature continues to inject panic into the markets.
Meanwhile, domestic U.S. political stability faces severe tests. According to prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a government shutdown at the end of the month has surged from single digits to over 80% this week. This near-paralysis of fiscal operations could directly impact liquidity in the Treasury market, trigger short-term financial turbulence, and signal more intense partisan battles over fiscal spending and debt ceiling issues, further reducing long-term policy predictability.
Additionally, the outlook for monetary policy remains uncertain. The Federal Reserve, the "main valve" of global capital flows, is at a critical leadership transition point. Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Although Trump hinted at having "locked in a final candidate" at the Davos Forum, markets are closely watching this key personnel change. Polymarket data shows the leading candidate is BlackRock executive Rick Rieder with a 48% chance of nomination, followed by former Fed Governor Kevin Wirth at 28%. Regardless of who is ultimately chosen, this indicates significant uncertainty about future monetary policy paths, which suppresses market risk appetite.
In summary, the macro landscape presents a complex picture of multi-dimensional uncertainty. Ideally, in such a scenario, Bitcoin as a "safe-haven asset" should benefit like gold. However, the reality is quite different. Greg Cipolaro, Head of Global Research at NYDIG, pointed out: "During periods of market stress and uncertainty, liquidity preference dominates. This dynamic harms Bitcoin far more than gold. Although Bitcoin has good liquidity, it remains more volatile and prone to reflexive selling during leverage liquidations. Therefore, in a risk-averse environment, regardless of its long-term narrative, Bitcoin is often used as a tool for raising cash and reducing risk exposure; gold, on the other hand, continues to serve as a true liquidity 'safe harbor.'"

Internal Environment: Insufficient Internal Momentum and Capital Outflows Coexist
While macro conditions are complex and intertwined, the crypto industry itself faces multiple challenges, from regulatory setbacks to ongoing capital outflows, jointly indicating downward pressure.
First, a setback in the key legislative process for U.S. cryptocurrency regulation. Due to Cb CEO Brian Armstrong’s public opposition, the Senate Banking Committee canceled the scheduled review of the Market Structure Bill. For Cb, stablecoin yields are not just "extra money" but the economic foundation for transforming from a trading platform to a global digital financial infrastructure. This is why it insists on defending its interests even against most industry players. Fortunately, legislative progress has not completely stalled.
On one hand, the Senate Agriculture Committee has rescheduled the bill review for January 29; on the other, a Democratic senator’s aide indicated that Democrats are still willing to return to negotiations to push for bipartisan compromise. However, the initial setbacks clearly show that establishing a clear and stable regulatory framework remains difficult, and this uncertainty itself dampens market enthusiasm.
Second, the previously waning DeFi (Decentralized Finance) narrative shows clear signs of divergence. According to data from X user Yujin Monitoring, Strategy bought an additional 2,932 Bitcoin last week, increasing holdings to about 713,000 BTC; BitMine increased its Ethereum holdings by over 40,000, reaching approximately 4.34 million ETH (with over 2 million staked). However, more companies are showing fatigue: Metaplanet has not purchased Bitcoin for two consecutive weeks and recorded an impairment loss of about $680 million in fiscal year 2025; Ethereum treasury firm FG Nexus sold 2,500 ETH on January 20; GameStop transferred all Bitcoin holdings to Cb Prime on January 23, likely preparing for sale.
Notably, Strategy’s unrealized gains remain substantial, while BitMine has suffered significant unrealized losses due to Ethereum price volatility.
Furthermore, the U.S. national Bitcoin reserve strategy has not been truly implemented, lacking policy-level buy-in from the highest levels, making institutional buying more a matter of individual business decisions rather than systemic trend.
Meanwhile, capital flow data further confirms market weakness. According to CoinShares, last week’s net outflow from digital asset investment products reached $1.73 billion, the highest since mid-November last year. Bitcoin and Ethereum saw outflows of $1.09 billion and $630 million respectively. Additionally, SoSoValue data shows that last week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a total net outflow of about $1.33 billion, the second-largest weekly outflow in history; Ethereum spot ETF outflows totaled about $611 million.
More notably, Santiment’s monitoring indicates that the total market cap of stablecoins decreased by $2.24 billion over the past 10 days, suggesting capital may be flowing out of the crypto ecosystem into traditional safe assets like gold. This phenomenon aligns with gold prices reaching new highs, indicating that in the current environment, some investors prefer traditional "safe havens" rather than buying dips in crypto assets.
Summary
As January 2026 draws to a close, Bitcoin’s volatile trend seems to reflect deep market anxiety. In the short term, multi-dimensional macro uncertainties, regulatory setbacks, institutional hesitation, and shifting capital flows collectively exert strong downward pressure.
However, as Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, stated: "When fundamentals continue to 'move upward and to the right,' price increases are only a matter of time." The dazzling rise of gold may mask the ongoing advancement of crypto infrastructure, but it does not mean true value is stagnating.
The market’s pendulum swings between fear and greed. Currently, capital outflows driven by risk-averse sentiment stand in stark contrast to the long-term fundamentals that remain undervalued. This divergence is often not the end but a process of accumulating energy for future value reversion. For prudent investors, chasing assets at high levels may not be wise. Maintaining patience and a structural perspective, waiting for macro fog to clear gradually, might be a more cautious approach to navigating this cycle.