Based on the latest market information today, Ethereum is currently at a critical juncture with intensified volatility and a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Here are the key points:

📈 Core Market Dynamics and Price Performance

Key Price Range

· Current Price: $2,900 - $2,950
· Important Support: $2,890 - $2,900, $2,796
· Key Resistance: $3,085** and **$3,100 (50-day EMA)

Price Performance

· After a significant decline yesterday (January 26), a technical rebound occurred today, with intraday gains of approximately 1.7% - 2.5%.
· Although the price has recovered above $2,900, it has yet to effectively break through the psychological barrier of $3,000, remaining in a state of both recovery and adjustment.

⚔️ Bulls and Bears Deeply Contested

The most notable feature of the current market is the fierce disagreement among internal funds.

· Bullish Forces:
· Large inflows into spot ETFs: On January 26, the spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $117 million, reversing the previous trend of outflows.
· Continuous accumulation by whales: Whale addresses have bought over 70,000 ETH (worth about $200 million) in five days, while exchange ETH reserves continue to decline, indicating funds are being accumulated on dips and transferred to long-term storage.
· Bearish/Cautious Forces:
· Institutional fund withdrawals: As of the week ending January 23, Ethereum experienced over $630 million in net outflows from institutional funds, showing caution among large capital.
· Early whale suspected of cashing out: An address dormant for nine years transferred 50,000 ETH (worth about $145 million) to an exchange, raising concerns that long-term holders may be selling.

🔍 Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

Technical Indicator Signals

· Trend Indicators: MACD signals a bearish trend, indicating short-term downward pressure persists.
· Strength/Weakness Indicators: Daily RSI is around 41, approaching oversold territory, suggesting weak market sentiment but also potential for a short-term rebound.

On-Chain Fundamentals Are Positive
A very positive signal is that the 7-day average of active addresses on the Ethereum network has hit a record high of 718,000. This indicates that despite weak prices, the real demand for network usage remains strong, forming a “bullish divergence,” which is often a leading indicator of subsequent price increases.

📊 Short-Term Market Key Predictions

· Bullish Scenario: If ETF funds continue to flow in and successfully break through the resistance at $3,085**, the price could further test the $3,188** region, reinforcing market expectations of a trend reversal.
· Downside Risks: If the key support at $2,900** fails, the price may revisit the strong support near $2,796**, and short-term market sentiment could be suppressed.

In summary, the current Ethereum market is a “tug-of-war” between external capital battles and internal fundamental strengthening. In the short term, closely monitor the $2,900** support and the $3,085** resistance, as well as ETF fund flows, which will be crucial in determining the short-term direction.
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