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- Today’s Chart: Bitcoin Maintains a Key Support Level:
Bitcoin’s price remains above the $89,000 support level as investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 45 on the daily chart, confirming ongoing sideways trading.
Traders will closely monitor the (RSI) to break above the midline, which could indicate a shift from a bearish to a bullish trend. This move would also increase the likelihood of a strong breakout above the key $90,000 level.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) shows resistance at $91,315, which must weaken for Bitcoin to extend its recovery toward the 100-day EMA at $94,718.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the signal line on the same chart, suggesting increased downside momentum if investors reduce their risk exposure. A reversal below the immediate support of $89,000 could push Bitcoin to test the lowest level recorded on Sunday at $86,075.
Daily chart of the BTC/USDT pair
Caution Ahead of the Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Decision
It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate at the target range of 3.50% - 3.75% during its meeting on Wednesday, halting the monetary easing cycle after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025 that lowered borrowing costs to their lowest level since early 2023.
The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that investors still expect a 97.2% probability that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged, with only 2.8% of market participants expecting a cut to the 3.25%–3.50% range.
Interest rate cuts act as a catalyst for rising high-risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins, while maintaining low interest rates restricts liquidity.
FedWatch Tool | Source: CME Group
U.S. President Donald Trump urges Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to significantly cut borrowing costs, but monetary policymakers insist on responding to market conditions and current data. The central bank often faces a dual task of reducing inflation to the 2% target and lowering unemployment.
U.S. job growth has slowed sharply in recent months, while the unemployment rate remains steady. However, with inflation surpassing the 2% target, policymakers may signal a temporary pause in the monetary easing cycle. Investors will closely watch the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's press conference for any hints about the potential timing of the next rate cut.