Ethereum Hegota Upgrade Full Analysis: Why do FOCIL and ERC-8004 Become the New Core of Scarcity Narrative in 2026?

Ethereum Foundation researcher Thomas Thiery recently officially proposed incorporating the FOCIL (Fork Choice Inclusion List) mechanism as a core feature of Ethereum’s second major upgrade in 2026—“Hegota.”

The Hegota upgrade is expected to launch in the second half of 2026, with technical complexity far exceeding previous upgrades. This upgrade not only plans to introduce FOCIL censorship-resistant features to address the increasing centralization risks of block builders but also aims to solve the long-standing network issue of “state bloat” through Verkle trees and state expiration mechanisms.

Background of the Upgrade

Ethereum is undergoing a critical transformation from a “world computer” to a “global settlement layer.” As network activity increases and adoption expands, infrastructure centralization risk and state data bloat have become two major bottlenecks restricting its long-term development.

According to the Ethereum Foundation’s roadmap, the Hegota upgrade is positioned as the next significant protocol update following the Glamsterdam upgrade in mid-2026. This upgrade is named after the merging of the execution layer’s Bogota upgrade and the consensus layer’s Heze upgrade. Its core goal is to ensure Ethereum remains a vibrant decentralized platform over the next decade.

Technical Architecture of the Hegota Upgrade

The technical plan for Hegota mainly revolves around two directions: enhancing censorship resistance through the FOCIL mechanism and addressing state bloat with Verkle trees.

In terms of censorship resistance, the FOCIL mechanism is proposed as a core feature of the upgrade. This mechanism allows a committee of validators to force the inclusion of valid transactions in blocks, rather than relying on the decision of a single block proposer. FOCIL modifies Ethereum’s fork choice rule to ensure that any valid transaction can be included in the chain within a limited time.

To address state bloat, the Hegota upgrade plans to introduce Verkle trees as a replacement for the current Merkle Patricia trees. This change will significantly reduce proof sizes and support stateless client operation, enabling verification of the blockchain without requiring large local storage.

How the FOCIL Censorship-Resistance Mechanism Works

The FOCIL mechanism is meticulously designed to fundamentally change the allocation of responsibility for transaction inclusion. According to the technical specifications of Ethereum Improvement Proposal EIP-7805, FOCIL disperses authority through a committee mechanism. In each slot, a group of validators is selected as the inclusion list committee members, each of whom constructs and propagates an inclusion list based on their subjective view of the mempool.

Validators play a crucial role in the FOCIL mechanism. They receive, store, and relay inclusion lists within a specific time window, and stop accepting new lists after the view freeze deadline. Most importantly, validators only vote on blocks that meet the inclusion list criteria, meaning that blocks lacking the specified transactions cannot garner enough votes to become canonical.

ERC-8004 Standard and AI Transformation

Parallel to the Hegota upgrade, the Ethereum ecosystem is actively embracing AI transformation. In January 2026, Ethereum contributors outlined the ERC-8004 standard, which aims to facilitate structured communication and settlement among AI agents on mainnet and Layer 2 networks.

The core innovation of the ERC-8004 standard is providing portable identity and reputation systems for AI agents. Each AI agent is assigned a unique on-chain identity recorded as a non-fungible token (NFT). The standard also introduces an on-chain reputation layer, where ratings and feedback based on task performance and user experience are permanently stored on Ethereum.

For high-risk or sensitive workflows, such as financial operations, ERC-8004 supports verification mechanisms. The verification registry links agents with independent verifiers who can stake funds to re-execute tasks or use zero-knowledge proofs and other techniques to confirm whether outputs match the agent’s claims.

Market Data and Investment Perspective

According to Gate Market data, as of January 29, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) shows a complex market performance. The current price is $2,954.34, with a 24-hour trading volume of $473.57M, a market cap of $353.69B, and a market share of 11.30%. Price fluctuations over the past 24 hours are -1.37%, over 7 days -6.18%, and over 30 days -0.3%.

Long-term data shows Ethereum’s all-time high at $4,946.05 and its all-time low at $0.4329, indicating significant volatility. The current circulating supply is 120.69 million ETH, with the same total supply, and an unlimited maximum supply.

Market prediction models estimate Ethereum’s average price in 2026 at $2,926.98, with a range between $1,990.34 and $3,834.34. By 2031, Ethereum’s price could reach $7,657.97, representing a potential return of +77.00% compared to the current price.

Ecosystem Impact and Future Outlook

The advancement of the Hegota upgrade and ERC-8004 standard marks Ethereum’s efforts to consolidate its position as a neutral global settlement layer from multiple dimensions.

The introduction of the FOCIL mechanism directly addresses the increasing centralization of the block builder market. In recent years, due to MEV competition and vertical integration among builders, relays, and searchers, the Ethereum builder market has become increasingly centralized. Researchers warn that this structural centralization itself poses potential risks, even though large-scale censorship cases have been limited so far.

In terms of AI ecosystem integration, ERC-8004 has gained support from multiple parties, including MetaMask, Coinbase, and Google proxy contributors. Over 70 projects have submitted demos or built proxy browser interfaces similar to blockchain explorers. Layer 2 networks like Taiko have publicly supported ERC-8004, considering it part of the expected infrastructure development for large-scale proxy economies. Ethereum Foundation AI lead Davide Crapis describes the current phase as an early start, calling February 2026 the “genesis” period for this standard ecosystem.

Ethereum’s price, according to Gate data, is $2,954.34, while market forecasts for 2031 reach a median of $5,209.50. Behind these numbers is a revaluation driven by technological upgrades. As AI proxies begin autonomous interactions and accumulate on-chain reputation via ERC-8004 on Ethereum, network activity will enter a new dimension. The introduction of Verkle trees will lower node operation barriers, further strengthening decentralization. The roadmap depicts Ethereum weaving a larger web—censorship-resistant mechanisms protect transaction freedom, state optimization ensures network sustainability, and AI standards open new application frontiers. Every node in this web serves the same goal: creating a neutral global infrastructure that is not controlled by any single entity.