#加密市场观察 the main reason why the price of Bitcoin has been suppressed around $90,000 is closely related to options market activity. Deribit data shows that a large number of options open interest is concentrated near the current strike price, especially ahead of the massive expiration date on January 30. Bitcoin monthly options with a notional value of about $8.4 billion will expire this Friday, with a put/call ratio of 0.54 and a maximum pain point of $90,000. This market structure means that exposure is primarily structured through options rather than highly leveraged futures, and traders are using hedging and structured strategies to manage risk.

Macroeconomic factors cannot be ignored either.
The Fed kept interest rates in the range of 3.5%-3.75%, with a vote of 10 to 2, and Fed governors Milan and Waller voted against it, advocating a 25 basis point rate cut. Although the Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of its three consecutive meetings, the current decision to keep interest rates stable has dampened the performance of risk assets to some extent. Although Bitcoin has a "digital gold" narrative, it is still regarded as a high-beta risk asset rather than a pure safe-haven tool. In the dollar liquidity dominance cycle, Bitcoin is difficult to stand alone, especially when external shocks come and market liquidity becomes thinner, the chain of liquidations of high-leverage positions will amplify the normal pullback into a rapid decline.
Assets are differentiated, and gold and Bitcoin diverge
Since January 2026, there has been a significant divergence between Bitcoin and gold. While tokenized gold PAXG recorded record inflows, Bitcoin faced continued selling pressure. This differentiation essentially reflects differences in the attributes of different assets. Gold prices soared above $5,300 per ounce and even approached $5,600 at one point, while Bitcoin fell from its $98,000 stage high on January 15. Behind the differentiation of safe-haven assets is investors' repricing of safety and liquidity. In a volatile market environment, gold attracts conservative inflows as a traditional safe-haven tool, while Bitcoin is temporarily classified as a risky asset due to its high volatility.
This differentiation is also reflected in the market structure. Bitcoin's short-term rise and fall is highly dependent on marginal changes in derivatives leverage and ETF funds, while gold is more supported by physical demand and central bank reserve allocation.
Despite the market pullback, institutional activity remains active. Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings report showed that its Bitcoin holdings remained unchanged at 11,509. The company recorded an after-tax digital asset impairment loss of approximately $239 million due to the decline in Bitcoin prices. Tesla's case reflects the book pressure faced by listed companies holding Bitcoin. The company first disclosed its holdings of 43,200 Bitcoins in February 2021 and subsequently sold about 75% of its holdings near the bottom of the 2022 bear market, and its holdings have remained relatively stable ever since.
On the other hand, the institutional layout continues. Strive, a U.S.-listed Bitcoin treasury company, disclosed that it purchased 333.89 bitcoins at an average price of $89,851, and currently holds a total of 13,131.82 bitcoins, becoming the tenth largest Bitcoin corporate holder in the world. At the same time, BlackRock deposited 1,156.87 BTC (approximately $104 million) and 19,644 ETH (approximately $59.23 million) into Cb, indicating that institutions are still actively managing their crypto asset positions.
Investment advice, short-term caution and medium- and long-term layout
Based on the current market environment, investors should adopt a differentiated strategy.
In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to the market reaction after the option expires. After the massive expiration of Bitcoin options on January 30, the market may usher in a directional choice. If Bitcoin can hold the $88,000 support level, consider opening positions in batches.
In terms of sector allocation, we can pay attention to the relatively strong AI and RWA fields. These sectors have shown resilience in the overall market pullback and may be beneficiaries of capital rotations. In particular, AI-related tokens such as Worldcoin (WLD) and Kite (KITE), as well as Pendle (PENDLE) in the RWA space.
The medium and long-term layout can focus on two directions:
One is the supply effect after the Bitcoin halving, and the other is the progress of crypto legislation in the United States.
The White House will convene banks and crypto industry executives next week to discuss the stablecoin legislation controversy, and if progress is made, it could be a market catalyst. For investors with a strong risk tolerance, they can consider opening positions in batches after Bitcoin falls below $88,000, with a target level set in the range of $9.5-$100,000.
In terms of position management, it is recommended to control the allocation ratio of Bitcoin and Ethereum within 30% of total assets, and reserve a certain amount of cash or stablecoin positions to wait for better intervention points.
Risk Warning & Disclaimer
Market Volatility Risk: Cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets with high price fluctuations. In the past 24 hours, the contract liquidation of the whole network reached US$279 million, mainly short orders. Investors should be fully aware of the risk of market volatility and avoid using excessive leverage.
Policy Uncertainty: The review of the CLARITY Act, the U.S. crypto market regulatory structure bill, has been delayed multiple times, and policy uncertainty may continue to suppress market sentiment. Meanwhile, South Korea's ruling party finalized the Basic Act on Digital Assets, requiring stablecoin issuers to have a minimum capital of about $3.5 million, indicating that the global regulatory environment is still evolving rapidly.
Liquidity risk: Small and medium-cap cryptocurrencies have poor liquidity and may face greater selling pressure under extreme market conditions. bn contracts will be delisted from 42USDT, COMMONUSDT and other U-M perpetual contracts on January 30, and investors need to pay attention to the relevant risks.
Technical risks: Blockchain technology is still in its early stages, and security incidents such as smart contract vulnerabilities and cross-chain bridge attacks may occur. Investors should choose reputable trading platforms and wallets like Gate and take necessary security measures to protect their assets.
The market is currently in a repricing phase. The divergence between Bitcoin and gold reminds us that crypto assets do not yet fully possess the attributes of traditional safe-haven assets, and the speed of institutional capital inflows and the macro environment are still key variables. As the January 30 options expiration date approaches, the market may usher in a short-term turning point. If Bitcoin can successfully hold the $88,000 support and regain the $90,000 mark, it will help restore market confidence. However, against the backdrop of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged, investors should remain cautiously optimistic, focusing on structural opportunities rather than a full-blown bull market.