Crypto Daily Report #加密市场观察 01.31(：Bitcoin falls below key support levels triggering massive liquidations, market sentiment drops to extreme fear

1. Bitcoin Market Trends, Liquidation Dynamics, and Support Level Analysis
Bitcoin price continues to decline, repeatedly hitting key support levels (the $81,000-$82,000 and $80,500-$81,500 ranges), with technical indicators showing significant downward pressure. Momentum indicators (RSI 31, Stochastic 16, CCI -181) all indicate weakness. The moving average system is in a bearish alignment, lacking bullish signals. Large-scale long position liquidations amounting to $752 million have occurred, triggering systemic deleveraging. Sentiment indicators (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) have fallen to 28 points (extreme fear), and if short-term support levels (such as $81,000) are broken, the price could drop to the $70,000-$75,000 range.
Technical analysis shows Bitcoin forming a bearish consolidation box on the daily chart, with momentum fading on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts. The price has broken below the $83,300-$84,500 accumulation zone, and downward momentum has not yet ceased.
2. Bitcoin Price Forecast and Analyst Opinions
Analyst Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin will bottom out and rebound between August and October, then "soar all the way up." Despite the current downtrend, there is potential for a rebound in the long term.
Market competition for key support levels is fierce: 21Shares analysts believe that if the $84,000 support level fails, the next key support is $80,000, where buyers concentrated in November last year. If it falls below $80,000, the price could test the $75,000 low during the April 2025 tariff turmoil, or even the $71,000 predicted by Ledn CIO (a 43% drop from the all-time high).
3. Weekly Crypto Market Review and Capital Flow Analysis
This week, the overall crypto market was weak, with Bitcoin declining 5-6% over the week, dipping as low as $84,800. Stablecoin and ETF funds continued to flow out: weekly stablecoin net outflows reached $4.507 billion (average daily -$644 million), and Bitcoin ETF net outflows were $1.08161 billion (with $817.87 million outflow on January 29, accounting for 80%). Market sentiment remains at 28 points (extreme fear). Altcoins followed Bitcoin’s weakness but showed some signs of recovery; the Ethereum ecosystem received $220 million in security funding. Macro factors such as the FOMC hawkish signals and sticky PCE inflation have exerted negative pressure, and a wait for Bitcoin stabilization and regulatory policies (like the CLARITY Act) to be implemented is necessary.
4. Regulatory Policy Updates
The Central Bank of Kazakhstan plans to use Bitcoin seized by law enforcement to bolster the national crypto reserves, with an initial allocation of $350 million (including foreign exchange and gold). Investments will be made through five pre-approved hedge funds and crypto venture capital funds. Additionally, 130 illegal crypto exchanges have been shut down, with seized assets exceeding $5 million.
5. Institutional Holdings Movements
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund (the largest sovereign fund globally, with assets over $2 trillion) has increased its indirect Bitcoin exposure by 149% in 2025, reaching 9,573 BTC. This is mainly achieved through investments in companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin such as MicroStrategy, Cb, and Metaplanet, reflecting cautious institutional engagement with cryptocurrencies.