Why Is It Uncertain That Bitcoin Will Reach $130,000 and Above in 2026?

Galaxy Digital research team emphasizes that making price predictions for Bitcoin in 2026 has become nearly impossible due to the intersection of extremely complex macroeconomic and market risks. The company’s vice president, Alex Thorn, stated that next year could be one of the most challenging periods to forecast Bitcoin and the crypto markets.

Background of Market Uncertainty

Galaxy Research’s report dated December 18 indicates that macro uncertainty, political risks, and the volatile momentum dynamics of the crypto market together make predicting Bitcoin’s movement in 2026 extraordinarily difficult. Thorn noted that at the time of writing, the crypto market is in a deep bear phase, and Bitcoin is struggling to rebuild sustainable upward momentum. He stated that the downside risk will continue until the asset holds above the $100,000 to $105,000 level.

Options Markets: Wide Range from $130,000 to $50,000

Signals observed in the derivatives markets vividly reflect the uncertainty in the market. According to Bitcoin option pricing, traders are almost equally considering the probability that Bitcoin will be around $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026. By the end of the year, scenarios where the price could fall to around $50,000 or rise up to $250,000 are seen with similar probabilities.

This broad price range indicates that institutional investors are preparing for the possibility of sharply different scenarios unfolding next year. The $130,000 level is considered one of the medium-high price targets likely to be encountered during this period of uncertainty. The breadth of the options market clearly shows that professionals are preparing for large price swings rather than a clear directional trend.

Structural Maturation and Volatility Dynamics

Thorn points out significant structural changes beneath the surface. Bitcoin’s long-term volatility is decreasing, partly due to the growth of institutional strategies—especially options writing and yield-generating programs. These strategies tend to mitigate extreme price movements.

This evolution is also seen in the pattern known as volatility smile. Thorn mentioned that downside protection is now priced higher than upside positions—this pattern is more common in mature macro assets like stocks or commodities. The evolution of Bitcoin in this direction suggests that the asset is shifting from a high-growth investment vehicle to a macro-focused asset category.

Short-term Stagnation, Long-term Hope

Galaxy Digital acknowledges that 2026 could be a year of limited movement or “boring” for Bitcoin, but they do not believe this will weaken the asset’s long-term outlook. Even if prices drop to lower levels or approach technical support levels like the 200-week moving average, they expect continued institutional adoption and market maturation.

In their reports, they mentioned that a large asset allocation platform could include Bitcoin in standard portfolio models. Such a move would integrate Bitcoin into default investment strategies rather than optional trades, directing stable capital flows regardless of market cycles.

Towards $250,000: The Structural Transformation Story

Galaxy Digital believes that expanding institutional access, likely easing monetary conditions, and seeking alternatives to fiat currencies will position Bitcoin as a gold-like store of value. They forecast that these structural changes could push Bitcoin to $250,000 by the end of 2027. This expectation is based on the belief that deep institutional and economic integration, rather than short-term price volatility, will shape the outcomes in 2027 and beyond.