RIVER Technical Outlook: Parabolic Rejection From Macro Supply, Entering Deep Correction Phase

RIVER experienced a strong parabolic advance into the $70–$88 macro supply zone (0.786–1 Fib), where price was sharply rejected. That move marked a blow-off top, followed by aggressive distribution and a fast corrective sell-off.

Price has now lost all key retracement levels and is moving into a deep correction / reset phase after the vertical expansion.

EMA Structure (Strong Bearish Shift After Distribution)

20 EMA: $37.799
50 EMA: $26.838
100 EMA: $15.177
200 EMA: N/A

RIVER has decisively broken below the 20 & 50 EMA, and price is now pressing into the lower EMA band. This confirms a bearish short-term and medium-term structure after the distribution phase.

The $26.8–$37.8 zone now acts as major dynamic resistance on any bounce.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: $88.818
0.786 Fib: $70.185
0.618 Fib: $55.558
0.5 Fib: $45.284
0.382 Fib: $35.009
0.236 Fib: $22.297
Fib 0: $1.749

RIVER has broken below the 0.382 ($35.0) and 0.236 ($22.3) levels and is now trading deep in the lower retracement zone, indicating a full mean-reversion cycle from the top.

Any recovery attempts will face heavy resistance between $22–$35.

Structural Context

The move from December into January was a parabolic markup, followed by a classic distribution top and sharp markdown. Current structure shows no base formation yet — price is still in discovery mode on the downside.

For structure to stabilize, RIVER must build a range and hold above $12–$15 with acceptance.

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 40

RSI has rolled over from overbought and is now sitting below the midpoint, showing bearish momentum dominance and no confirmed bullish divergence yet.

This supports continuation risk until a base is formed.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance
• $22–$26 (0.236 Fib / EMA zone)
• $35 (0.382 Fib)
• $45 (0.5 Fib)

Support
• $15–$12 (local demand attempt)
• $7–$5 (last liquidity pocket)
• $1.75 (Fib 0 / cycle base)

📌 Summary

RIVER has completed a full blow-off → distribution → markdown cycle from the January highs. Price is now in a deep corrective phase with no confirmed base yet. Until RIVER can reclaim $22–$26 and build structure, the trend remains bearish and reset-oriented rather than recovery-driven.

$RIVER