ETH Technical Outlook: Breakdown From Range Support, Entering Deep Retracement Zone

ETH has been rejected from the $4,345–$4,950 macro supply zone (0.786–1 Fib) and remains in a broader corrective structure after the distribution top. Since then, price has respected a descending / corrective channel, producing lower highs and weak bounces.

Recent price action shows ETH losing the $2,785–$2,630 support area and flushing into the $2,100–$2,300 macro demand base, where buyers are now attempting to slow downside momentum. However, structure remains bearish.

EMA Structure (Bearish Bias, No Trend Reversal Yet)

20 EMA: $2,778
50 EMA: $2,966
100 EMA: $3,147
200 EMA: $3,255

ETH is trading below all major EMAs, confirming a bearish medium- and long-term structure.
The $3,150–$3,255 zone (100 & 200 EMA) is now major dynamic resistance.

Any move into that area without acceptance should be viewed as corrective.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: $4,953
0.786 Fib: $4,345
0.618 Fib: $3,867
0.5 Fib: $3,532
0.382 Fib: $3,196
0.236 Fib: $2,785
Fib 0: $2,110

ETH has lost the 0.236 Fib ($2,785) and is now trading near the Fib 0 base ($2,110) — a deep retracement zone after the cycle top.

A sustained reclaim of $2,780–$3,200 is required to shift structure back toward neutral.

Structural Context

Price remains inside a corrective descending structure, with no confirmed base yet.
Short-term demand is visible near $2,100–$2,300, but ETH must build a range before any bullish structure can develop.

A daily close above $2,780–$3,200 would be the first signal of structural improvement.

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 26

RSI is near oversold territory, showing strong bearish momentum dominance.
Relief bounces are possible, but momentum does not yet support a trend reversal.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance
• $2,780 (0.236 Fib)
• $3,196 (0.382 Fib)
• $3,532 (0.5 Fib)
• $3,867 (0.618 Fib)

Support
• $2,300–$2,100 (macro demand)
• $2,110 (Fib 0 / cycle base)

📌 Summary

ETH has completed a distribution → breakdown → markdown sequence from the 2025 highs. Price is now trading in a deep corrective phase with heavy resistance overhead. Until ETH can reclaim and hold above $2,780–$3,200, the structure remains bearish and corrective, not bullish.

$ETH ‌