Next Week Macro Outlook: Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI, US-Iran Negotiations, Japan Election — Crypto Market Faces Ultimate Test

On February 7, this week, the crypto market accelerated its decline. Although it experienced a brief rebound on Friday, fragile market sentiment will continue to be tested next week. Key macro events and data are densely scheduled, including US-Iran negotiations, Japan’s general election, US Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI, and more. The specific preview is as follows:

Macro Data and Federal Reserve Officials’ Speeches:

Tuesday 00:00: US January New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations;

Tuesday 02:30: Fed Governor Waller speaks on digital assets;

Tuesday 04:15: FOMC voter for 2027, Atlanta Fed President Bostic discusses monetary policy and economic outlook;

Tuesday 21:30: US December Retail Sales MoM, US Q4 Labor Cost Index QoQ, US December Import Price Index MoM;

Wednesday 01:00: FOMC voter for 2026, Cleveland Fed President Harker speaks on “Banking and Economic Outlook”;

Wednesday 02:00: FOMC voter for 2026, Dallas Fed President Logan speaks;

Wednesday 21:30: US January Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings YoY/MoM, US 2025 Non-Farm Employment Benchmark Revision (Unadjusted);

Thursday 15:00: UK Q4 GDP Annualized, UK December 3-Month GDP MoM, UK December Manufacturing/Industrial Output MoM, UK December Seasonally Adjusted Goods Trade Balance;

Friday 08:00: FOMC voter for 2026, Dallas Fed President Logan delivers welcoming remarks at an event, Federal Reserve Governor Mester attends by invitation;

Friday 21:30: US January Unadjusted CPI YoY, US January Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM, US January Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI MoM, US January Unadjusted Core CPI YoY;

US-Iran Negotiations:

On February 6 (local time), Trump stated that the US and Iran held “very good talks,” and Iran is “very eager” to reach an agreement. He said the US will negotiate with Iran again next week. He reiterated that Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons. Trump also authorized his government to impose tariffs on countries engaged in trade with Iran, but no new tariffs have been immediately implemented.

Japan Election:

Sanae Takaichi announced that Japan will hold a general election on February 8. The election results could signal a meaningful shift toward more expansionary fiscal policies in Japan, including tax cuts and increased government spending, at a time when Japan already has one of the heaviest public debt burdens in the world. Market analysts suggest that a more expansionist policy stance could put pressure on Japanese government bonds, weaken the yen, and complicate the Bank of Japan’s efforts to normalize monetary policy.