Is the rebound a correction or a preview of a new cycle?

Every significant bounce in Bitcoin has split the market into two camps: one shouting "bull run is back quickly," and the other sneering that it's just a "technical rebound." In fact, from a structural perspective, rebounds are never driven by emotions first but by capital movement. Recently, BTC's recovery seems more like a risk appetite revival after marginal liquidity improvement rather than purely retail FOMO.

On-chain data shows that long-term holders haven't significantly loosened their positions, and net outflows from exchanges remain moderate. This indicates that selling pressure hasn't led to a panic sell-off. #Celebrating the New Year at Gate Square

But what truly matters is the quality of volume during the rebound. If the rise is accompanied by declining volume, it's more likely driven by short covering; only a breakout with increased volume beyond key moving averages could signal a trend reversal. Many focus only on price but overlook the transaction structure—who is buying and how much they are buying is more important.

From a macro perspective, Bitcoin is no longer an isolated asset. It has subtle correlations with U.S. Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and risk appetite in tech stocks. When traditional markets enter a "risk asset window," BTC often benefits. But this also means that if macro expectations reverse, the crypto market will face pressure as well.

So, this rebound is more like a market health check: can it break free from the residual negativity and establish an independent trend? If a higher bottom range can be built, the bullish outlook will have a solid foundation. If it's just emotional recovery, the market may soon return to choppy sideways movement.

Trading isn't about guessing tops and bottoms; it's about recognizing probabilities. A rebound isn't the end point but a reminder: the market is still alive, and the story isn't over yet.