- Why Bitcoin Might Face Another Decline in February:

Bitcoin enters its fifth consecutive month of red candles, yet it still shows no clear signs of a long lower tail indicating strong buying support. Meanwhile, whale data points to ongoing selling pressure. A new decline could occur if demand fails to absorb the supply.

Short-term traders should closely monitor several warning indicators in February. The following analysis highlights the key factors.

Whale inflow ratio to Binance platform rises significantly in February
The whale inflow index measures the ratio of Bitcoin inflows from the top 10 transactions compared to total inflows to trading platforms. A higher ratio indicates greater selling pressure from major Bitcoin holders.

The decline in Bitcoin’s price below $70,000 in February coincided with the seven-day moving average of this ratio reaching its highest level in over two years, according to CryptoQuant data.

Chart
Whale inflow ratio (Bitcoin). Source: CryptoQuant

“This activity doesn’t seem isolated, as many whale transactions with large amounts of Bitcoin have been sent to trading platforms. The high liquidity of Binance plays a role, but the unstable market environment is prompting all types of investors to reassess their exposure and strategies,” explained DarkoFost, a CryptoQuant analyst.

What caused this significant increase in inflows? A large part appears to be related to Bitcoin transfers from a wallet classified by Arkham as belonging to Garrett Jene, to Binance.

Gareth Jene, the Chinese businessman and former CEO of the now-closed Bitforex exchange, drew attention after successfully short-selling shares during the market crash last October.

Arkham data shows that the wallet’s balance has decreased by more than 10,000 Bitcoin since the beginning of February alone. Since August of last year, when Bitcoin’s price exceeded $110,000, over 67,000 Bitcoin have been drained from this address.

Chart
Gareth Jene’s Bitcoin balance record. Source: Arkham

Lookonchain, a account tracking notable on-chain movements, reported that Gareth Jene transferred 5,000 Bitcoin to Binance and sold the assets during February.

The key question remains whether he will continue transferring Bitcoin to trading platforms. Another concern is whether other whales will follow a similar strategy.

Bitcoin enters a high volatility phase
Whale activity during a bullish trend can be absorbed by new demand without causing sharp declines. In such cases, coins move to investors willing to buy at higher prices. However, when large inflows occur amid negative sentiment, the risk of a sharp decline increases.

This risk becomes more apparent as Bitcoin’s historical volatility reaches its highest level in a year.

The historical volatility index measures the magnitude of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations over a previous specific period. High readings indicate a higher likelihood of significant short-term price swings.

Chart
Bitcoin price volatility historically. Source: CoinGlass

Although this indicator does not predict whether the market will turn bullish or bearish, combining high volatility with increasing whale inflows suggests a high probability of renewed downward pressure.

According to the latest BeInCrypto analysis, increasing selling pressure could push Bitcoin’s price toward the $55,600 region, aligning with the bearish pennant pattern forecast. Conversely, Bitcoin needs to recover the $70,800 level to stabilize in the short term.