Executive Summary #Bitcoin has slipped below the True Market Mean (~$79k), with the Realized Price (~$54.9k) defining the lower structural boundary. In the absence of a macro catalyst, this range is likely to frame the mid-term environment. Sell pressure continues to be absorbed within the $60k, $69k demand cluster formed in H1 2024. Holder conviction at breakeven has supported a #transition into consolidation. Liquidity remains constrained, with the 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stuck between 1,2. Capital rotation is limited, and the broader backdrop remains cautious. #ETF flows have rotated back into persistent outflows, removing a key structural bid. Institutional demand is no longer cushioning downside. The volatility risk #premium is normalizing as realized volatility remains elevated and implied retraces. Panic-driven flows are fading, with markets shifting toward range-bound expectations. #CryptoTrading $BTC
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🕵️ #BTC Range-Bound Under Pressure
Executive Summary
#Bitcoin has slipped below the True Market Mean (~$79k), with the Realized Price (~$54.9k) defining the lower structural boundary. In the absence of a macro catalyst, this range is likely to frame the mid-term environment. Sell pressure continues to be absorbed within the $60k, $69k demand cluster formed in H1 2024. Holder conviction at breakeven has supported a #transition into consolidation. Liquidity remains constrained, with the 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stuck between 1,2. Capital rotation is limited, and the broader backdrop remains cautious. #ETF flows have rotated back into persistent outflows, removing a key structural bid. Institutional demand is no longer cushioning downside. The volatility risk #premium is normalizing as realized volatility remains elevated and implied retraces. Panic-driven flows are fading, with markets shifting toward range-bound expectations. #CryptoTrading
$BTC