1. Short-term: The US dollar remains the "Uncrowned King"

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- Inertia and Liquidity: During sudden geopolitical conflicts, the first response of global funds is to seek assets with the best liquidity and depth. The scale and maturity of the US dollar and US debt markets are unmatched by any other assets.

- Safe-haven Path Dependence: Over the past few decades, whenever a global crisis occurs, funds tend to flow into the US dollar. This "path dependence" has been deeply ingrained in the subconscious of global investors. Even if the US is a party to the conflict, markets will default to considering the dollar a "relatively safe" haven.

2. Mid to Long-term: The Underlying Currents of De-dollarization
- Geopolitical Restructuring: If the US-Iran conflict escalates, major powers like Russia and China will indeed seize the opportunity to accelerate the "de-dollarization" process, such as expanding local currency settlements, increasing gold holdings, and developing digital currencies. This will weaken the dollar's hegemonic position, but it is a long-term, gradual process.

- Self-reinforcing Dollar: The US can enforce the use of the dollar through sanctions, the SWIFT system, and other means. Even if countries like Russia resist, most countries worldwide will still choose to maintain economic ties with the US, continuing to use the dollar.

3. Implications for the Crypto Market

- Short-term Bearish: Even with the long-term trend of de-dollarization, during the initial outbreak of conflict, funds will still prioritize flowing into the dollar and other traditional safe-haven assets. As a high-risk asset, the crypto market will be sold off, facing pressure.

- Long-term Bullish: If the conflict persists, global trust in the dollar will decline. Cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin), as "decentralized" stores of value, may gain more attention and adoption, thus receiving support in the medium to long term. $BTC