#贵金原油价格飙升 Regarding the situation, I personally lean towards “high-intensity confrontation with low-probability full-scale war.” Iran blocking the strait is both retaliation and leverage. What truly determines asset prices is not the conflict itself, but the inflation expectations it generates.

· For crude oil and gold: As long as the fleet does not withdraw and the strait remains blocked, high-level volatility will be the main theme. Inflation expectations will thus heat up.
· For the crypto market (BTC/ETH): This is the key.

Today, many people ask: “Isn’t Bitcoin inflation-proof? Why isn’t it rising?”
Looking at data from Gate Research Institute, it’s clear—Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq is as high as 0.43, only 0.15 with gold. What does this indicate? It shows that at this stage, BTC is primarily a “tech stock,” and only secondarily a “store of value.”

If oil prices continue to surge, causing inflation to rebound and the Fed’s rate cut expectations to be delayed, the first assets to come under pressure will be tech stocks and liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin. Therefore, my current view is:

· Short-term (emotion-driven phase): The crypto market will follow the US stock market’s sharp fluctuations, even face pressure.
· Mid-term (logic switch phase): If the conflict causes long-term doubts about the fiat currency system (the US dollar), or if global trade disruptions accelerate “de-dollarization,” then BTC will truly activate its “digital gold” hedge properties.

Conclusion

In turbulent times, wealth opportunities certainly exist, but they are hidden in volatility, discipline, and cognition. This wave of Gate TradFi opening the channels between traditional assets and crypto assets has enabled us to respond to these changes 24/7, truly upgrading our “arsenal.”