Bitcoin growth rate chart: Slowing down but not stopping yet

Large Bitcoin buyers seem to have slowed down. If you look at the chart showing the growth rate of capital flows into the market, the picture is clear: from early 2024 until recently, key demand factors (ETF, stablecoins, leverage) have started to slow down, even reversing. But is this a sign that the bull market is about to end or just a normal correction phase? NYDIG, a major industry analytics firm, argues that this is a " slowdown, not a collapse." This distinction is very important for those holding or considering holding BTC.

ETF Flows: From “Flowing” to “Fluctuating”

The easiest way to understand this is the capital flow from spot Bitcoin ETF funds. Since their launch in January 2024, these funds have attracted tens of billions of dollars from financial advisors, hedge funds, wealthy families, and retail investors. Importantly, this money has been almost consistently positive week after week for most of 2024.

But that pattern has changed. In recent weeks, ETFs have experienced significant outflows, including some of the largest withdrawals since launch. Even some stable, steady buyers like BlackRock have shifted to net selling. Looking at daily data alone, the chart might suggest a market collapse. But in the bigger picture, cumulative net flows remain positive, and funds still hold enormous amounts of Bitcoin. The change is in the trend: instead of continuous new money flowing in, some investors are taking profits, reducing exposure, or locking in gains.

The reason is that regulators have allowed institutions to deploy more complex strategies with their ETF holdings. Instead of just “buy and hold,” they can use options to hedge risks or generate additional income. This means they no longer need to constantly “fire money” into the market to make profits. When prices rise, they realize gains; when prices fall, they hedge rather than buy more. The steady demand has gradually faded.

Stablecoins: The Indicator Turns Quiet

If ETFs are the bridge to Wall Street, stablecoins are the base crypto cash within the system. When USDT, USDC, and other stablecoins increase, it usually indicates new dollars flowing into exchanges ready to deploy.

For most of 2024-2025, Bitcoin’s strong rallies have coincided with stablecoin supply growth. That pattern is now weakening. Recent stablecoin growth charts show the total supply has stopped expanding and even slightly contracted in recent weeks. Different tracking tools may not agree completely, but the trend is clear: less “new money” is being sent to exchanges.

Part of this is simply investors withdrawing funds (shifting to Treasuries, small tokens losing market share). But the other part is actual capital leaving the crypto system. As a result, the digital dollar reserves that could push BTC higher are no longer increasing. Each rally now must be funded from a nearly fixed “pot” of money. No automatic inflow of “new money” occurs when sentiment turns optimistic again.

Derivatives: Traders Growing Cautious

The third driver is derivatives contracts. When traders use high leverage and are confident in long positions, the “funding rate” (the fee to hold a position) is often high and positive. The basis on CME futures (the gap between futures prices and spot prices) also tends to be high, indicating strong long demand.

Recently, both indicators have cooled down. Funding on offshore derivatives sometimes turns negative (shorts pay longs). CME basis narrows. Open interest is lower than at the peak. This suggests many leveraged long positions have been liquidated during the recent correction and have not yet re-entered. Traders are more cautious, even willing to pay fees to hedge against downside risk rather than continue long bets.

This is important for two reasons. First, leveraged buyers are the force that can turn a normal uptrend into a parabolic rally. If they get liquidated or stay on the sidelines, volatility slows, becomes less predictable, and less explosive. Second, when leverage accumulates, it can amplify both gains and losses. A less-leveraged market can still be volatile but less prone to sudden “liquidity gaps.”

Who’s on the Other Side?

If ETFs are withdrawing, stablecoins are quiet, and derivatives traders are cautious, who is buying? The answer is interesting.

On-chain data shows some long-term holders have taken advantage of recent volatility to realize profits. Coins that have been dormant for years are starting to move. At the same time, there are signs that new wallets and retail investors are quietly accumulating BTC. Some rarely-spent addresses are increasing their holdings. And on major exchanges, small retail flows remain net buying even during the worst days.

This aligns with NYDIG’s view: the most visible demand factors have reversed at the right time. Beneath the surface, a slow transition is underway from long-term holders to newer investors. This capital flow is more volatile and less mechanical than during the ETF boom, making the market more challenging for quick-profit traders. But it doesn’t mean capital is disappearing.

What Does This Really Mean?

First, the “auto-flow” phase is nearly over. For most of 2024, you could hold BTC passively and benefit from the automatic increase in ETF and stablecoin flows. That underlying demand has faded. Heavier declines and harder-to-sustain rallies are now more common because there’s no longer “new money” flowing in automatically.

Second, the slowdown in demand factors does not kill the bull cycle. Bitcoin’s long-term case (fixed supply, institutional channels, balance sheet presence) remains intact. But the path from here to the next peak will differ. Instead of a straight line driven by a big story, the market will trade more on positioning and “liquidity pockets.” ETF flows may fluctuate, stablecoins may hover at a baseline, and derivatives may stay more neutral.

Finally, the chart showing the growth rate of demand factors cooling off is a normal part of each cycle’s “breathing.” Large inflows set the stage for excess, then withdrawals reset the market. New buyers appear at lower prices, often more quietly. Data supports the view that Bitcoin is in this reset phase.

The drivers of the early bull phase are slowing or even reversing. But this is not a “broken machine.” It means the next stage will depend less on automatic capital flows and more on whether investors still want to own this asset.