Global Economic Transformation: Zoltan Pozsar's Analysis of Decentralization and New Risks

At the Token 2049 conference in October 2025, Zoltán Pózára presented a fundamental analysis of the processes occurring in the global economy. The key point of the analyst is that this decade will become a turning point in the history of financial systems. Zoltán Pózára noted that the world economic order is undergoing a profound transformation, moving away from a centralized model toward a distributed architecture.

Collapse of the Unipolar Economic System

The analysis presented at the event clearly indicates a trend: the world is dividing into two main economic zones — the “Western Federation” and the “Eastern Federation.” This polarization is not accidental but the result of a deliberate reorientation of American economic policy. Previously, the US functioned as a global consumption center, but now it is transforming into a manufacturing hub. This shift fundamentally undermines the existing financial order, which has been built on the dominance of the US dollar for decades.

The practical consequences of this reorientation are already visible. Europe is facing short-term economic challenges caused by insufficient investments in critical infrastructure and defense. The policy of raising interest rates implemented by the American administration has accelerated the economic decline on the continent.

Economic Pressure on Developed and Developing Markets

The negative effects of American monetary policy extend far beyond Europe. Japan and South Korea, two of Asia’s largest economic centers, are experiencing intense pressure on asset and currency markets. High US interest rates combined with trade policies create conditions for the devaluation of local currencies and capital outflows from these regions.

Emerging markets are in an even more difficult position. They have been battling inflationary pressures, exchange rate volatility, and the constant threat of massive capital outflows for many years. These economies become especially vulnerable during periods of geopolitical tension.

Externally, it may seem that the US dollar maintains its position thanks to the redistribution of costs among strategic partners and the increasing use of stablecoins as an alternative currency system. However, Zoltán Pózára warns that such support may be short-lived. In the long term, the dollar’s dominance remains in question, as allies may lose interest in maintaining this system.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Savings Strategy in the Era of Trust Crisis

Discussing investment strategies in the current economic landscape, the analyst emphasized that gold consolidates its role as a universal safe-haven asset. The growing trust crisis in fiat currencies creates favorable conditions for further price increases of the precious metal. Gold remains the optimal choice for preserving value amid uncertainty.

Regarding Bitcoin, Zoltán Pózára expressed a more cautious stance. Although cryptocurrency has the potential as an alternative store of value, its high price volatility and susceptibility to regulatory actions by authorities hinder its widespread adoption as a savings medium. Bitcoin can serve as a portfolio asset for some investors, but its path to becoming a traditional savings instrument remains blocked.

US government bonds, despite political support, remain a potential risk source. In the short term, demand for treasury securities is supported; however, the analyst advises caution. A possible decline in foreign investors’ interest in these instruments could become a significant economic shock if there is a sudden reduction in demand from US strategic partners.