The Fourth Cryptocurrency Bear Market

Why play with Bitcoin? Compare it to housing prices and crypto prices.

Figure 1: Shanghai real estate price trend over 20 years. Basically, housing prices have been rising for 20 years since 2002, until a major decline began in 2022. Core district housing prices fell by -20%, suburbs by -40%.

In other words, housing prices have been rising for the past 20 years. If you started with nothing, it’s very difficult to have enough capital to participate because your income from work can’t keep up with the rate of housing price increases. It wasn’t until these past two years that housing prices started to fall. But isn’t the total price still too high? The real estate cycle is too long—only once every 20 years do we see a true bull or bear market. Missing it means waiting 10-20 years, which is too long in a lifetime. How many 10 or 20-year periods does a person have? Many young people don’t have large capital or the time to wait 10-20 years.

Figure 2: Bitcoin’s monthly chart over the past 10 years, clearly showing a 4-year bull-bear cycle.

Bitcoin halves its block reward every 4 years, and every 4 years a bear market occurs. Bear markets typically see a crash of -80%. Even Bitcoin itself can drop -80%, and altcoins often fall -99%, almost zeroing out. This provides a chance to start over with a complete reshuffle.

(Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin white paper in 2008. In the genesis block of 2009, the rule of halving approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) was written in stone: block rewards go from 50 to 25, then 12.5, 6.25, 3.125, etc. every 4 years, the mining reward halves.)

Satoshi set up a 4-year cycle mechanism, giving the crypto world a regular bull-bear cycle.

Summary: Physical real estate is also an investment for everyone, but the total price is too high. The 10-20 year bull-bear cycle is too long—difficult for both initial capital and investment period, especially for young people.

The crypto market’s 4-year bull-bear cycle is obvious. During bear markets, prices drop -80%, greatly lowering the investment threshold. Everyone can participate. You only need a monthly income or salary to get involved. Missing a bull or bear market cycle means waiting 3-4 years to start over, giving you another chance.

Compared to the housing market, stock market, gold, silver, and other financial markets worldwide, only the crypto market has a 4-year bull-bear cycle. During bull markets, prices can multiply dozens of times; during bear markets, the entire market drops -80%. Then it resets and starts over.

The saying “a year in crypto is like ten years in the real world” captures this idea.

Low threshold + 4-year cycle of multipliers during bull markets and -80% drops during bear markets = creating a unique investment value in crypto.

Young people can use their salary or monthly income to reasonably control cash flow, and invest money they can afford to lose in crypto as a side hustle. It’s a very good choice.

(Warning: avoid taking out loans or selling houses to invest recklessly. Crypto is best for bottom-fishing during bear markets, aiming for small gains to make big, or big gains to make bigger. It’s not suitable for grassroots to try to turn things around through reckless leverage.)

Last bull-bear cycle: November 2021 peak price of $69,000.
November 2022 bottom price of $15,500, a -79% drop from the peak.
This cycle’s bull-bear: October 2025 peak price of $126,000.

The bear market has lasted 5 months so far, with Bitcoin’s lowest price around $60,000. From $126,000 to $60,000, it’s a -52% drop, just about halving. The current bear market is only halfway through. In another six months, crypto assets will be cheap and ripe for picking.

Each bear market lasts about 12 months (from October 2025 to November 2026). We’ve only been in the bear phase for 5 months.

The peak of $126,000 is still 75% away from the bottom of $30,000. There’s still some time and room for the market to fall further. Many newcomers to crypto should pay attention to my insights.

I will continue to update a lot of experience, data, and trading strategies about bull and bear markets in crypto. Let’s stick together and hold until the bottom, and buy at the lowest point.

The four-year cycle opportunity is here. I hope everyone can buy the dip during bear markets and get rich during bull markets.