DeSantis support becomes a decisive factor in the race for the governor's seat: how does this affect the prospects of Casey DeSantis

A recent survey conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Laboratory revealed an unexpected result for some: among Florida Republican voters, the political weight of support for Governor DeSantis is more significant than the influence of support for Donald Trump. This finding is especially relevant for understanding the contest between Ron DeSantis and other gubernatorial candidates in the upcoming November elections.

Sharp contrast in voter support: Trump effect and survey reality

The study shows a significant discrepancy between two scenarios. When respondents were told that Byron Donalds received Trump’s support, his rating soared to 47%, while DeSantis—who has not officially announced his candidacy—was only at 12%. The third candidate, investment firm CEO James Fishback, received 5%, Lieutenant Governor Jayer Collins—2%, and former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner—1%.

However, the picture changed dramatically before respondents were informed about Trump’s support. In the initial poll, Trump’s advantage over DeSantis was only four points (28% vs. 24%), indicating his position is fragile without the former president’s endorsement.

State authority surpasses national influence

The most telling result of the survey was the response to the importance of support for various political figures. 42% of respondents preferred approval of Governor DeSantis, compared to only 32% who favored Trump’s opinion. This underscores DeSantis’s local dominance over the former president’s national influence in the context of the state’s gubernatorial race.

Dr. Sean Frider, the research director and political science professor, offered an interpretation of this phenomenon. In his view, DeSantis’s advantage may be less about his political stance and more about voter curiosity regarding his position, since Trump’s stance is already widely known and discussed. In the case of DeSantis, support from his spouse is automatically assumed if she decides to run, making his personal position less relevant.

Historical parallel: how Trump once helped DeSantis

The study evokes historical parallels. Eight years ago, Trump’s support was a critical factor for then-unknown Congressman DeSantis from Northeast Florida. Thanks to this endorsement, he defeated Adam Putnam in the Republican primaries and narrowly beat Democrat Andrew Gillum in the general election. Now, the roles are somewhat reversed: DeSantis’s own authority is becoming a more significant asset in the state.

Interestingly, DeSantis has not yet announced support for any of his potential successors, maintaining political flexibility and his own influence.

Methodology and scope of the survey

The poll included 657 likely Republican voters and was conducted in February of this year. The margin of error is +/- 4.38 percentage points, giving the results a high degree of reliability. The study demonstrates that in the race for governor, including the possible candidacy of DeSantis, local authorities can exert more influence than national political figures.