The Deep Root of Cryptocurrency Decline: What Bitcoin's Five-Month Continuous Drop Reveals About Market Structural Changes

Bitcoin prices are facing a historic downturn. The consecutive five-month decline is the worst since the 2018 bear market, and the current price is around $67,380. Market analysts point out that this correction in the cryptocurrency market is not just a price fluctuation but reflects a fundamental shift in how the market evaluates risk assets.

In February 2026, Bitcoin’s decline rate reached about 20%, with a total drop of over 25% for the year. From October’s high, the decline has been as much as 52%. This continuous drop is the longest since the 2018-2019 bear market, indicating a rapid deterioration in market sentiment.

Rapid Shift in Market Valuation Criteria Pressures Cryptocurrency Markets

“We are witnessing not just market weakness but a process where the very criteria by which the market assesses the value of risk assets are changing,” says Matt Greenspan, senior market analyst at eToro and founder of Quantum Economics.

This structural shift is driven by multiple macroeconomic factors, including worsening trade tensions, central bank policy stances, and rising geopolitical tensions, which are accelerating the decline in the crypto market. Notably, Bitcoin may be transitioning from its traditional role as a risk asset to a different function.

Data shows a rapid change in investor behavior within the crypto market. It also highlights the expanding use of cryptocurrencies in emerging markets. In Latin America, trading volume is projected to reach $730 billion in 2025, a 60% increase, led by Brazil and Argentina. Meanwhile, in developed markets, selling pressure on Bitcoin is intensifying, revealing a divided market landscape.

Cryptocurrency Market Faces Multiple Headwinds Simultaneously

Jonathan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, analyzes that the current crypto market is under multiple pressures. Over the past five weeks, $3.8 billion in ETF funds have flowed out, trade tensions have escalated, and the Federal Reserve has yet to signal a clear rate cut, all weighing heavily on investor sentiment.

The movements of cryptocurrencies are diverging sharply from other asset classes. Gold has risen about 48% since September, establishing itself as a safe haven, while Bitcoin has fallen approximately 41% during the same period. Meanwhile, tech stocks, including AI-related shares, remain strong, highlighting that Bitcoin is not properly positioned in either category.

“Cryptocurrencies currently lack a clear narrative and are under pressure from multiple directions,” Randin states. This suggests that market participants may be losing their sense of Bitcoin’s role.

Divergence from Tech Stocks Indicates Cryptocurrency’s Position

A deeper issue is the extreme instability in the correlation between cryptocurrencies and risk assets overall. Over the past 20 days, Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq has fluctuated sharply from -0.68 in early February to +0.72 mid-month.

Randin explains, “It’s not just a loss of correlation but a sign of extreme volatility.” Typically, when risk-on trading is functioning, an asset that lags indicates relative weakness. In other words, the market is beginning to treat Bitcoin less as a traditional risk asset and more as a liquidity-sensitive, specialized asset.

Greenspan suggests this could indicate a “structural change in the narrative.” “The narrative that Bitcoin is a neutral alternative to debt-based fiat currency has been consistent. But if it’s shifting toward a hedge for sovereignty, the divergence from stocks might not just be weakness but a sign of a structural bullish factor,” he says.

Is It a Bottoming Signal or Further Correction? Technical Indicators Show a Crossroads

Technically, the situation is complex. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to record lows. Meanwhile, accumulated addresses have absorbed about 372,000 BTC since late December, a classic signal suggesting a cycle bottom.

However, caution is warranted historically. Past downturns have seen indicators reaching similar lows, only to experience an additional 30-40% decline. The current 52% drop may still be in the middle of a correction phase compared to past bear markets, where declines exceeded 80%.

Sentiment analysis also matters. Greenspan notes, “When long-term fundamentals remain intact but sentiment becomes uniformly pessimistic, reversals tend to be sharp.”

Market views vary. The mainstream consensus is that until Bitcoin recovers to the $68,000–$72,000 zone, the downtrend will likely continue. Meanwhile, the $60,000 level remains a key short-term support, with the 200-week moving average around $58,500 just below.

In the current Bitcoin market, the balance between technical bottom signals and ongoing selling pressure makes market judgment difficult. The historic five-month consecutive monthly decline is not just a statistical event but symbolizes a structural transition in the entire crypto market.

If a fundamental change in outlook is occurring, it is likely to unfold over several years rather than months, indicating a long-term trend. The cryptocurrency market is now in the process of exploring new valuation standards.