The U.S. President serves a 4-year term, that's correct, but Congress has elections every 2 years. When the President has been in office for 2 years, there's a midterm election—essentially a midterm report card for the sitting president.

When a U.S. President completes two years in office, he faces a major test. This test doesn't evaluate the president himself, but rather his political party. That's the midterm election.

What does the midterm election determine? Primarily, it selects members of Congress. Congress is divided into the Senate and the House of Representatives. This election, in essence, grades the president's performance during his first two years in office.

If the president's party wins, it suggests that the public is reasonably satisfied, and the president's next two years will be smoother. But what if they lose?

If they lose, the president doesn't step down; he can continue as president. However, he becomes a "lame duck president"—meaning his legs are no longer nimble, he can't move fast.

Clearly, based on Trump's performance since taking office for a second term, he'll very likely lose. Almost everything Trump has done in these two years has failed to satisfy the American public. His approval rating has dropped faster than a roller coaster, hitting the lowest 100-day approval rating in 80 years—just 39% of people approve of his performance, with over half disapproving. With such a reputation, it's hard to win the midterm election.

Let me explain why he's so unpopular. He's been stirring up trouble since taking office—imposing tariffs on imported goods. Consumer goods were already expensive; this tax directly sent prices through the roof. Over 70% of people believe this policy will worsen inflation, making life harder.

What's even more ridiculous is that he keeps boasting about his economic prowess, yet 73% of people think the American economy is in terrible shape. Over half believe that since he took office, the economy hasn't improved—it's gotten worse. More than 70% are worried his economic policies will push America into recession in the short term. This isn't a minor issue—ordinary people can barely afford food anymore. How could they vote for the Republican Party he leads?

Beyond botching the economy, he constantly seeks special treatment, showing no regard for America's rule of law. Over 60% think he's abandoned the concerns of most people. 64% criticize him for overextending presidential power, even trying to circumvent federal judicial rulings. This lawless behavior even turns off the American public itself, let alone swing voters.

Previously, he could fool some people by stirring emotions and playing populist cards, but in his second term, he's all talk, no action. The jobs and benefits he promised never materialized. The public isn't stupid—they naturally won't buy his pitch anymore.

Moreover, there's an old rule about American midterm elections: the ruling party almost always loses. Obama and Biden both stumbled in their midterms. Frankly, after two years without seeing benefits, the public uses their votes to "teach a lesson" to the ruling party, venting all their grievances on the president's party.

The Republican Party, which Trump leads, is already seriously fractured because of his extreme positions. Many Republican lawmakers don't support his methods. During the midterm election, some might even sabotage him behind the scenes, let alone win over independent voters.

Now let's discuss how bad things could get for Trump as a "lame duck president" if the Republicans actually lose.

If the Democrats control either the Senate or the House, Trump faces restrictions everywhere. If they control both, he becomes completely hollow—everything gets bottlenecked. For example, if he wants to implement tax cuts or infrastructure projects, a House that won't appropriate funds means nothing gets done. If he wants to nominate Supreme Court justices or ambassadors abroad, a Senate that won't confirm means he can't even appoint anyone.

Even worse, if Democrats control Congress, they'll likely go after him, launching various impeachment investigations. Even if they can't remove him from office, they can keep him in constant turmoil, dealing with hearings every day with no time to govern. Previously, Trump could use presidential power to suppress opposition voices, but as a lame duck president, even his own party might not stand by him. Those Republican lawmakers who once cheered him on might flip for their own electoral interests—politics has no permanent allies, only permanent interests.

Some might say Trump could flip the script by stirring up populism? Forget it. His operations since returning to office have already destroyed his base. Many of the lower-income supporters who backed him have turned against him due to rising prices and job difficulties. Add his various scandals and ongoing lawsuits, and there's no realistic way to flip things with rhetoric alone. Moreover, American public trust in both parties is low. 30% disapprove of both Republicans and Democrats. For Trump to win based on party advantage is even harder.

Actually, Trump's probable loss in the midterm election isn't just his personal problem—it's an inevitable result of the two-party struggle and shifting public sentiment in America.

America's midterm election seems like a report card for the president, but it's actually a battlefield for the two parties to compete for control of Congress, with ordinary citizens merely the tools they're fighting over. Whoever wins, the real losers are ordinary people. After all, both parties are too busy fighting each other to genuinely care about people's welfare. Issues like prices, employment, and healthcare—they just pay lip service, with no real solutions.

To put it another way, even if Trump somehow wins the midterm election, it changes nothing. American political gridlock runs deep. The contradictions between the two parties grow deeper. His extreme policies will still face opposition. Implementing his agenda remains as difficult as moving mountains. Especially with his approval ratings on a steady decline—even if he wins, it's a pyrrhic victory. His governing path over the next two years will still be rough.

Bottom line: Trump's performance since his second term has essentially sealed his probable midterm election defeat. Becoming a lame duck president is entirely self-inflicted. He's too full of himself, thinking he can perpetually deceive the public through emotional appeals, forgetting that ordinary people care most about tangible interests. You botch the economy and ruin people's lives; no amount of rhetorical skill will matter.$ETH