BlackRock hopes that crypto ETFs can generate $500 million in revenue. Is this achievable?

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told shareholders that digital assets, private markets, and other businesses could contribute $500 million in revenue within five years, but the growth of its crypto ETFs has already made this target seem too conservative.

BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is the most profitable ETF among the company’s thousands of global ETFs, with its speed to surpass $100 billion in assets being five times that of traditional ETFs. It is also the shortest-established and fastest-growing among the 20 largest ETFs in the U.S.

After Trump’s victory in 2024, Bitcoin surged to a record high of $126,000. Although prices later retreated, IBIT’s total return fell by 18.82%, but the asset shrinkage did not affect its fee structure.

Fund registration data shows that IBIT generated $47.5 million in revenue in 2024 and $174.6 million in 2025, while ETHA contributed $19.3 million during the same period. The two funds’ combined net fee income over the first two years reached $241.4 million.

Adding the newly launched ETHB in March, BlackRock’s crypto ETF portfolio currently totals about $61.6 billion, with annualized fee income of approximately $156 million.

At a 0.25% fee rate, crypto ETFs need to reach a $200 billion scale to generate $500 million annually, leaving a shortfall of $138.4 billion.

Relying solely on price increases to fill this gap is unlikely. Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will reach $100,000 and Ethereum $4,000 by the end of 2026, but without new capital, the portfolio size would only be about $91.8 billion. Even Bernstein’s bullish forecast of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 leaves a $68.9 billion shortfall.

Fund inflows are the key driver to close this gap. Data shows that three crypto ETFs have a combined net inflow of about $34 billion annually, which could enable the target to be reached within four years at this growth rate.

In terms of cumulative revenue, BlackRock’s crypto ETFs are expected to break $500 million by mid-2027. If assets grow by 40-50%, this milestone could be reached as early as early 2027; even with a 30% asset decline, the goal could still be achieved by late 2027 or early 2028. Only a long-term halving of assets would significantly delay the timeline.

Comparing horizontally, the largest U.S. gold ETF, GLD, earns about $604 million annually in fees. BlackRock’s crypto ETFs would need to reach about 132% of GLD’s size to generate $500 million in annual fees.

From the company’s overall revenue perspective, $500 million accounts for only 2.1% of BlackRock’s total revenue and 2.6% of fee income. While not a core business, it helps solidify the position of crypto ETFs within its broader portfolio.

Therefore, Fink’s five-year goal does not rely solely on a specific coin price or capital inflows. The key depends on whether the crypto ETF portfolio can ultimately surpass $200 billion in assets, which also indicates whether the crypto market can be adopted by more investors.