Bitcoin under stress: are markets pricing in bigger risks now?

The cryptocurrency market turned bearish as Bitcoin once again failed to take out a key daily resistance level.

The leading cryptocurrency by market cap is trading below $68,600 on Friday, down by more than 3% over the last 24 hours

The bearish market sentiment strengthens amid uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire plan, which seems to be sidelining institutional demand as well.

Institutional inflow remains poor

The crypto market is feeling the effects of the ongoing war in the Middle East. The ongoing talks about a potential ceasefire deal between the US and Iran remain highly uncertain

President Trump stated on Thursday that Iran is negotiating to end the war.

However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on state TV that his government had not engaged in talks to end the war, citing that “we do not plan on any negotiations.”

Traders remain cautious in the market as the latest news suggests a slight negative outcome.

This has erased the gains recorded earlier this week, with further selloff expected if the market conditions don’t improve

The uncertainty means that institutional flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain muted.

The ETFs began the week with positive flows of $167.23 million on Monday, followed by an outflow of $74.53 million on Tuesday, and then a mild inflow of $7.81 million on Wednesday.

Thursday now saw an outflow of 2,400 Bitcoins from the ETFs, indicating that the institutions remain cautious at the moment

However, Sergei Gorev, Head of Risk at YouHodler, told Invezz in an email that the current market phase is a consolidation and he expects Bitcoin’s price to rally higher in the near term.

Gorev added that,

In our opinion, despite concerns about high interest rates, liquidity inflows into spot ETFs for cryptocurrencies have so far kept bitcoin from collapsing. We also believe that the money of private investors seeking to escape the “Arabian tale in the desert” supports the price of BTC.

“We believe that the current price consolidation is a phase of cryptocurrency accumulation by investors from the Middle East. There are big purchases due to the Iran-Israel conflict. This may continue in the medium term and keep the prices of cryptocurrencies from falling, along with the European debt market diving down,” Gorev said.

Bitcoin price forecast

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient as Bitcoin failed to overcome the daily resistance level at $72,081.

BTC rallied to the $72,000 region on Wednesday, but a rejection candle on the 4-hour chart resulted in the leading cryptocurrency giving away its recent gains.

The near-term bias stays mildly bearish as price holds within the previous demand zone

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is capped well below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages clustered around $72,100 and $77,800, respectively.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart at 48 leans slightly bearish after recovering from lower readings.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hovers close to the signal line, suggesting momentum is still fragile and lacks sustained upside conviction.

If the bulls regain control, they will need to overcome the first major resistance level at $72,100 before they can retest the 100-day EMA near $77,800.

A daily close above the 100-day EMA would be needed to neutralize the current downside bias

However, if the selloff continues, Bitcoin could dip lower towards the $65,900 support level. A break below this area would trigger deeper losses toward $60,000, a key psychological level.

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