Bitcoin drops 23.8% in Q1 2026, marking the worst performance since 2018

Mars Finance reports that on April 1, according to The Block, Bitcoin declined 23.8% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the worst first-quarter performance since 2018. In comparison, Bitcoin fell 50% in the first quarter of 2018. When combined with a 23% drop in the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin has decreased approximately 41.6% over the past six months. Analysts attribute this decline to multiple factors. Bitrue research director Andri Fauzan Adziima stated that the decline in the first quarter was mainly driven by outflows of capital from Bitcoin spot ETFs, along with persistently high inflation, the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, and a general risk-avoidance sentiment in the market. During the first quarter, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced net outflows of $496.5 million; outflows of $1.8 billion occurred in the first two months, while inflows of $1.32 billion in March partially offset these outflows. Nevertheless, analysts believe that long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains intact. Presto Research analyst Min Jung said, “There is almost no evidence that Bitcoin’s long-term conviction has undergone a structural shift. Institutional participation and adoption trends remain strong, indicating that this decline is more cyclical than fundamental.” She pointed out that the key to a trend reversal in the second quarter is greater certainty in the macro environment, especially regarding the situation in the Middle East. LVRG research director Nick Ruck added, “To reverse the trend in the second quarter, we need ETF capital to return to net inflows, clear progress in crypto-friendly regulation in the U.S., and a shift toward more accommodative monetary conditions.”