Weekly Strategy Report April 2, 2026

1. Weekly Market Overview

This week’s crypto market showed a choppy downward trend. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index edged up to 31, but it remains in the Fear range. Total market capitalization fell to $2.31T. BTC and ETH both weakened in tandem; short-term oversold signals became more prominent. ETF flows showed a split pattern, with BTC outflows and ETH inflows. In the derivatives market, leverage rose moderately. Overall market risk appetite stayed cautious. After consolidating earlier, the market shifted into a slight downside move, and the overall landscape has turned weaker.

On the macro front, the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance, further delaying rate-cut expectations. Global risk assets faced broad pressure, and crypto assets pulled back in sync. On regulation, the U.S. SEC has continued to advance enforcement for crypto-asset oversight, focusing on standardizing compliance operations for crypto trading platforms. After the EU’s MiCA legislation took effect, compliance reviews were initiated for the first time, and the industry’s push toward standardization continued. At the industry level, testing related to Ethereum’s Cancun upgrade continues. Funding enthusiasm for Layer2 ecosystem projects has cooled. During the choppy downward move, institutions gradually reduced positions. This pullback is mainly driven by tighter macro liquidity and profit-taking, while the underlying foundation for long-term industry development has not fundamentally changed.

2. Core Market Action & Capital Flows

This week, the crypto market continued its pattern of choppy pullbacks. Market sentiment recovered slightly but still remained deep in the Fear range. Total market capitalization fell slightly. Major coins weakened in sync, and short-term oversold signals stood out. ETF flows reflected a differentiated picture. Derivatives leverage rose moderately. Overall risk appetite remained cautious, and the stage-wise downward choppy trend persisted.

From the perspective of market sentiment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 29 last week to 31, still within the Fear range. Panic eased somewhat but did not receive a fundamental improvement. Investors’ confidence repair has been weak. The sentiment tone remains cautious. The atmosphere for taking long positions is thin, and an effective rebound force has not formed.

On the core market-cap front, the current total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.31T, down 1.15% over the past 24 hours. It continued the prior pattern of choppy downside. Buying demand has not been strong enough to absorb sell pressure. Signs of both profit-taking and risk-avoidance exiting are present at the same time. Overall, the market is under pressure. Volatility remains moderate, but the downward trend is clearly visible.

Specifically for the two major coins, both BTC and ETH show a differentiated path of short-term oversold conditions and weaker longer-term outlooks. BTC’s current price is $67,338.71, down 0.73% over the past 24 hours. Short-term technical indicators generally point to an oversold state. Price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, so a technical rebound is possible. Longer-term indicators are weak, with insufficient rebound momentum; overall, it remains in a choppy downward channel. ETH’s current price is $2,101.69. The oversold signal in the short term is clear and it has rebound potential. However, the longer-term indicators show a soft trend. Price is oscillating around the mid-band, with long and short forces moving toward balance. Overall, the走势 is weaker than expected. As both weaken simultaneously, they further drag down the broader market’s pullback.

On capital flows, the ETF market shows a differentiated pattern. Bitcoin’s daily ETF net flow was -87.20M, versus +7.80M last week. Institutional capital has withdrawn sharply in the short term, with a more cautious stance. Ethereum’s daily ETF net flow was +19.70M, versus -8.50M last week. Flows shifted from net outflows to net inflows. Institutional willingness to allocate to ETH has rebounded somewhat. Overall, capital flows are split, with no large-scale concentration of inflows or outflows.

The derivatives market, meanwhile, shows a mild rebound and a small expansion in leverage. Open interest in futures is 2.54B, with a percentage change of +1.82%. Open interest in perpetual contracts is 413.10B, with a percentage change of +0.52%. Leverage capital has flowed back slightly. Risk appetite has warmed a bit, but there has not been large-scale position building. Overall leverage levels remain stable, and risks are controllable.

Overall, the current crypto market is in a stage where sentiment is recovering slightly, capital flows are differentiated, and price action is choppy with downside movement. Major coins have both short-term oversold signals and a weak longer-term trend. In the short term, there may be a technical rebound to repair oversold conditions, but in the medium term, downside pressure still exists. Trading should remain cautious, with sensible position sizing and vigilance for further pullbacks after any rebound loses steam.

3. Curated Trading Strategies

Key Highlights:

This SOL strategy is built on the MACD indicator. It is designed for the high-volatility SOL sector and has demonstrated excellent risk-reward ratio and P&L performance among strategies for major coins. It offers sufficient upside elasticity and high trade quality. It is well-suited as an “elasticity enhancement” strategy for SOL allocation, allowing it to capture opportunities in high-volatility market conditions while maintaining good risk control.

Applicable Scenarios:

Suitable for traders with higher risk tolerance who can accept moderate volatility in SOL. Specifically designed for SOL-like high-volatility major coins, it fits both trend-switching and range-bound/choppy conditions. It can be used as an elasticity enhancement strategy for SOL allocation, especially for capital that aims to chase excess returns in high-volatility markets while still having a certain level of risk tolerance. It is not suitable for extremely conservative long-term capital or for SOL extreme one-sided downtrend scenarios.

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4. 24h Top Gainers & Losers by Coin

Top Gainers (TOP5):

Top Losers (TOP5):

5. Conclusion

This week, the crypto market continued its choppy downward pattern. Sentiment recovered slightly, but it was still unable to reverse the market’s weakness. Major coins are oversold in the short term, but have insufficient rebound momentum in the medium term. ETF flows show a differentiated picture, indicating cautious institutional stance. Derivatives leverage rose moderately, but a unified “buy/long” push has not formed. Industry compliance-building continues steadily, and technological iterations keep going; the long-term development logic has not changed. However, in the short term, the market still needs to address the dual pressures of tighter macro liquidity and weak market sentiment. Going forward, focus should be placed on how BTC and ETH defend their key support levels, changes in ETF capital flow direction, and macro policy developments. In the medium term, investors may patiently wait for market stabilization signals. In the short term, remain alert to further downside after any rebound loses strength. Manage positions reasonably, respond to market volatility rationally, and avoid extreme risks.