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📍USA - Iran shows signs of negotiation but nothing is certain yet
📌 Axios: The US and Iran are discussing the possibility of a ceasefire, in exchange for Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz. It is unclear whether the negotiations are direct or mediated -> the likelihood of an agreement remains uncertain
📌 Trump announced that Iran has proposed a ceasefire, on the condition that they open the Hormuz Strait. Iran completely denies this -> stating that what Trump said “is not true”
📍 Meanwhile, on the ground, the situation is heading in the opposite direction:
- Iran declares it will continue the campaign with “maximum intensity,” ready to extend it for at least 6 months
- The UAE is preparing options to support the US and allies in opening Hormuz by force
- A scenario being discussed is the US taking control of Iran’s strategic islands in the strait
The market is increasingly skeptical of what Trump says after TACO repeatedly contradicts him.