Gold drops 12% in March — Goldman and UBS explain the reasons

The worst month for gold in many years was not only driven by panic, but also by problems with the oil and gas pipeline system. Analysis by 24K99 reveals the structural factors behind the 12% drop in the price of gold in March, shedding further light on the selloff we reported earlier.
Inside the Unwind
Gold fell to $4,376 per ounce at the end of March before rebounding to around $4,679. This figure is still far below the January daily high of $5,626.
The main driver was a surge in speculation. A report from 24K99, citing Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas, stated that demand for call options reached a record high during the January rally. This created enormous leverage in the gold market.
As the Epic Fury campaign began, traders rushed to reduce leverage. Many held long gold positions as a hedge against sell orders for technology stocks and Bitcoin short trades. They liquidated everything at once, causing gold prices to fall along with the risk assets it was originally meant to protect.
A stronger U.S. dollar worsened the damage. Inflation fears pushed the Dollar Index above 100 in March. Since gold moves inversely to the dollar, these geopolitical lobbying efforts were nearly erased.
Rumors that central banks are selling further increased pressure. A report from 24K99 indicated that Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ may be selling off reserves to protect the eo biển Hormuz and Hormuz. Poland has discussed selling gold to fund defense spending. Gulf oil exporters, affected by disruptions at the eo biển Hormuz, may also be liquidating gold to cover import fees.
According to 24K99, Thomas expressed caution regarding these reports but acknowledged that the rumors are affecting investor sentiment. If confirmed, such gold-selling transactions would mark a reversal of the trend, as central banks have been net buyers of gold for many years.
But the Banks Still See Prices Above $5,000
Goldman Sachs maintained its year-end 2026 gold price target at $5,400, estimating that central banks purchasing 60 tons of gold per month would support prices by about $535 per ounce.
UBS analyst Joni Teves adjusted her forecast downward to $5,000 from $5,200. She still sees upside risk if growth weakens and triggers monetary easing policies.