I just realized an interesting thing — 2026 is the year that Benner’s Cycle predicts a big, major market peak. And now we are living through that time, it’s strange to look back and see how controversial this Benner chart has been within the investor community.

The story begins with Samuel Benner, a farmer who suffered heavy losses during the 1873 crisis. Instead of giving up, he started studying economic patterns and published the book "Business Forecasts of the Future with Ups and Downs in Prices" in 1875. Interestingly, Benner didn’t use complex mathematical models—he based his analysis on observations of agricultural price cycles and the influence of solar cycles. He left a simple note: "Certainly." And nearly two centuries later, that note still has an impact.

Benner’s chart works along three main lines: Line A marks years of panic, Line B points to the boom years (when it’s a good time to sell), and Line C highlights recession years (when it’s a good time to buy). What’s interesting is that this tool seems to have predicted many major events quite accurately—from the 1929 Great Depression, World War II, the Dot-Com bubble, to the collapse caused by COVID-19—although it’s off by just a few years.

In 2023, many retail investors began widely sharing the Benner chart, using it to support optimistic scenarios for 2025-2026. In the crypto market, everyone talks about speculative hype in emerging sectors that could increase in 2024-2025 before declining. But now that we’ve entered 2026, reality is more complicated.

I have to admit, the past few months have challenged confidence in this chart quite a lot. JPMorgan increased the likelihood of a global recession to 60%, and Goldman Sachs raised its forecast to 45%. Veteran traders like Peter Brandt have criticized that the Benner chart is just a "dream world"—they can’t get in or out of it realistically.

However, there’s something interesting: Google Trends shows that search interest in Benner’s Cycle is still high. This reflects retail investors’ demand for optimistic stories, especially as the economic and political backdrop becomes increasingly unstable. Some people still believe that the market isn’t just about numbers—it’s also tied to sentiment, memories, and momentum—and sometimes those old, quirky charts end up working simply because enough people believe in them.

Maybe that’s the biggest lesson from Benner’s Cycle—not because it’s miraculous, but because it gives us something to believe in when everything gets chaotic.