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Recently, something caught my attention—the US national debt has surpassed $35 trillion. This isn't an abstract number because each American owes about $100,000. Even more shocking is that the US public debt accounts for over 120% of the country's GDP. In other words, even if America went into an economic coma and everyone worked for a year without food or water to pay off the debt, they still wouldn't be able to.
What happened here? The US government simply spent money like crazy. Infrastructure, social welfare, military expenditures—money was needed everywhere. And when the wallet wasn't enough, they borrowed from all over the world. Global investors, governments, corporations—all became creditors to America. It's like a wealthy second-generation son who burns through money recklessly.
But wait, the US is the world's largest economy. They have a strong financial system, and the dollar is the global hard currency. How do they do it? They print money to pay off debts. They lower interest rates, do quantitative easing—all to ease debt pressure. It sounds clever, but it comes at a cost. In the long run, it could cause inflation and destabilize the entire global economy.
That's why US Treasury bonds still attract investors. Everyone considers them a relatively safe investment. They believe that America will never default on its debts. But as debt grows, that trust begins to be tested. If investors lose faith and start selling US public debt, problems will arise.
And here comes China. As the second-largest foreign holder of US debt, China holds bonds worth about $771 billion. That's only about 2% of the total US public debt, but on the international financial market, it's a "big fish" that can cause quite a stir.
What would happen if China suddenly sold everything? The supply of US debt on the market would spike sharply. Bond prices would fall, yields would rise—investors would seek higher returns. That would be bad news for the US government because their borrowing costs would suddenly increase. Year after year, they'd have to pay higher interest.
And it wouldn't stop with the United States. There would be a chain reaction across the global economy. Other countries' currencies would fluctuate, investors would panic, trade order would shake. The most dangerous part would be for the US itself—if their financial markets collapsed, the entire economy would suffer.
But wait, would that be good for China? Not entirely. Selling US debt would give them a ton of dollars, but it also involves the risk of dollar depreciation. China is the largest foreign exchange reserve holder in the world and owns a huge amount of US assets. When the dollar falls, they would feel the pain too. That's why it's better for China to hold that debt—it's like having a "trump card" in negotiations.
But you know what? More and more countries are starting to think differently. Instead of focusing on selling US public debt, the whole world is gradually moving toward dedollarization. According to reports, nearly half of the countries worldwide have begun this process. Emerging economies were the first to oppose it—they saw how America’s dollar printing is effectively "reaping what it sows" on other nations.
Every time the Fed raises interest rates, international capital flows out of other countries back into the US. This causes crises in Latin America, Southeast Asia, recently in Argentina and Turkey. The United States has not only shifted its economic pressure but also taken wealth from other countries.
That's why everyone is unhappy now. China promotes the internationalization of the yuan, BRICS countries are creating a new financial settlement system that bypasses traditional banking alliances. Even traditionally developed countries are beginning to doubt the dollar.
Does this mean the end of dollar hegemony? Not so fast. The dollar’s position in the global economy is deeply rooted. But the trend is clear—dedollarization is the future. And China plays a key role in this process. As the largest developing country and representative of emerging economies, every move China makes influences the direction of the global economic structure.
Interestingly, ordinary people are noticing this too. They see that US public debt is growing uncontrollably, that the system is unfair. Some joke that America is turning the whole world into its creditors. Others express concerns about how this might affect them personally.
One thing is certain—amid the explosion of information, we must stay rational. The global economic situation is complex and uncertain. But one thing is clear: the structure of the world financial system is changing before our eyes. The days when US public debt could be ignored are gone.