Meme craze is back: Who is controlling the market behind RAVE's surge? TRUMP whale accumulation logic breakdown

As of April 13, 2026, according to Gate market data, RAVE’s intraday increase exceeded 250%, with the price once breaking through $10, now trading at $9.5. Rewinding to April 8, RAVE’s price was about $0.26, meaning it achieved over a 30-fold increase within approximately five days.

On-chain data reveals the fund manipulation structure behind this round of rapid rise. According to on-chain analyst monitoring, a multi-signature address (0x0A1…790d7) has withdrawn a total of 31.93 million RAVE from a certain exchange over the past two days, with its holdings’ asset value soaring from $37.54 million to $89.10 million, a floating profit of about $50 million in two days. Meanwhile, as early as April 8, the same token holdings were valued at only $8.52 million. This indicates that the holdings of this address expanded roughly tenfold within five days, far exceeding the increase in secondary market prices during the same period.

More notably, the rhythm of fund movements is worth attention. During the process where spot prices surged from about $0.3 to $6.2, the RAVE team first transferred 30.58 million RAVE (worth about $42 million at the time) to an exchange, then further pushed the price up after attracting short positions. This “transfer tokens first, then push up” operation pattern creates a systematic squeeze on short positions in the derivatives market, essentially using spot price movements to trigger targeted liquidations of derivative holdings.

What kind of fund control pattern does on-chain data reveal?

RAVE’s rise is not a typical market sentiment-driven rally. The asset of a multi-signature address increased from $37.54 million to $89.10 million in two days, while on April 8 it was only worth $8.52 million. Such rapid growth cannot be explained solely by natural buying. A more plausible explanation is that this address is associated with the project team or early participants, with highly concentrated chips among a few addresses, and the actual freely tradable circulating supply is far below the total issuance.

This structure implies extremely low cost for price manipulation. When most chips are held by a few addresses, only minimal genuine buying is needed to push prices significantly higher. Meanwhile, during the push-up, a large amount of tokens are withdrawn from exchanges to on-chain addresses, further reducing the tradable liquidity in the market. This logic points to a core issue: the essence of this rally is a targeted game of “controlling spot, eating into derivatives.” As spot prices rapidly rise, short positions in the derivatives market are liquidated one after another, with short-selling funds becoming the main counterparty for the main sellers.

Such a pattern is not rare historically. Whenever similar structures appear, the risk threshold heavily depends on the main players’ willingness to continue pushing prices higher. Once funds start moving back to exchanges (i.e., from on-chain addresses to exchange deposits), the speed and extent of price retracement tend to be proportional to the pace of the previous rise.

Why are whales so focused on TRUMP tokens?

The on-chain data for TRUMP tokens shows a completely different fund logic from RAVE. According to Gate market data, as of April 13, 2026, TRUMP is trading at $2.80. Since the announcement of holding a luncheon at Mar-a-Lago in March, the price once surged 50%, but by this Monday, it had fallen more than 33%. However, the price decline did not stop whales from continuing to accumulate.

Specifically, whale address 8DHkza withdrew 850,488 TRUMP from exchanges in the past two days, worth about $2.4 million; address 7EtuAt withdrew 105,754 TRUMP, currently holding a total of 1.13 million TRUMP, valued at about $3.2 million. These two addresses have accumulated approximately $5.6 million worth of TRUMP tokens. Additionally, a newly created wallet withdrew another 399,934 TRUMP from exchanges, worth about $1.12 million, and now holds 1 million TRUMP.

Whales continue to withdraw tokens from exchanges into on-chain wallets, typically indicating two intentions: one, preparing for long-term holding; two, gaining on-chain identity qualification to participate in specific activities. The upcoming luncheon on April 25 invites the top 297 TRUMP holders, with the top 29 able to join a private reception. This “holding rank determines participation eligibility” mechanism directly links token holdings with exclusive rights, serving as a direct driver for whale accumulation.

How does the concentration of holdings influence price formation structurally?

The holding structure of TRUMP makes it far more sensitive to whale behavior than typical cryptocurrencies. Data shows that over 91% of the supply is concentrated in the top 10 wallets. In such an extreme concentration, any action by whales—whether withdrawing or depositing—can disproportionately impact the secondary market.

On one hand, concentration means the freely tradable supply is extremely limited. As whales continue to withdraw tokens from exchanges, the available sell volume diminishes further, providing upward price elasticity. On the other hand, this structure also introduces significant liquidity risk. Analysts point out that limited market liquidity and high concentration can lead to increased volatility, potentially driven by upcoming mid-term elections and related events. Once whale selling begins, due to the lack of sufficient depth on the other side, prices could experience sharp declines.

From a fund behavior perspective, whale accumulation occurred amid a decline of over 33%, exemplifying a “buying more as prices fall” pattern. This contrarian approach differs from typical chasing behavior and reflects a bet on the outcome of specific events—the exclusivity of the luncheon’s rights may be undervalued by the market. However, there is an inherent tension between whales’ motives and exit strategies: if holdings are locked in before the event, whether whales will quickly sell after the lock-in ends will directly influence subsequent price movements.

What market drivers cause the high volatility of TRADOOR?

TRADOOR exhibits typical “event-driven + high amplitude” features. According to Gate market data, as of April 13, 2026, TRADOOR is trading at $5.50, up 16% in 24 hours, with a high of $6.34 and a low of $4.15, a 24-hour trading volume of $6 million, and a current market cap of about $77 million.

The price fluctuations of TRADOOR occurred in two phases. Previously, the token surged due to listing on Robinhood’s spot trading platform, then experienced a sharp decline, followed by a recent rebound with nearly 60% daily increase. The initial phase’s upward movement was directly catalyzed by the liquidity boost from listing on mainstream spot exchanges. The second phase’s rebound, after a steep drop, with a 152.2% amplitude, indicates intense market disagreement over the token’s value.

However, on-chain data reveals structural issues that warrant caution. Some on-chain analyses indicate that the whale wallets hold 98.56% of the tokens and have not yet sold. This suggests that most trading activity at current prices is not from broad retail participation but from a highly concentrated stockpile. In the absence of whale selling, each price increase faces enormous potential selling pressure from a single address. TRADOOR’s previous rise relied more on the “listing event” rather than ongoing fundamental improvements. Once the event-driven momentum wanes, the structural issue of high concentration will likely dominate price trends.

How do the fund behaviors of three hot tokens reflect market logic?

Comparing RAVE, TRADOOR, and TRUMP reveals significant differences in fund behavior but a shared underlying feature: chip structure determines price behavior, not fundamentals.

RAVE’s fund logic is “controlled pump,” driven mainly by a few addresses manipulating both spot and derivatives markets. TRUMP’s fund logic is “event-driven accumulation,” driven by exclusive rights and whale expectations mismatch. TRADOOR’s fund logic is “high chip concentration volatility game,” driven by the tension between unliquidated whale positions and event catalysts.

All three point to a trend: in meme tokens and low-market-cap altcoins, market efficiency is far below that of mainstream crypto assets, with price discovery dominated by chip concentration and whale actions. For ordinary market participants, on-chain monitoring capabilities are increasingly surpassing traditional technical and fundamental analysis.

From the flow trend perspective, such tokens’ short-term volatility will remain high, with core price-influencing variables being the position changes of a few addresses rather than market sentiment or external events. Monitoring whale addresses on-chain and tracking exchange deposit/withdrawal data in real-time are becoming essential tools for understanding price movements of these tokens.

Summary

This week’s hot tokens show three clear fund mainlines: RAVE achieved nearly 28 times increase in about five days, with a multi-signature address floating profit exceeding $50 million, and on-chain data pointing to a highly concentrated control structure and “controlling spot, eating derivatives” operation mode; TRUMP’s price fell over 33%, while whales continued to withdraw tokens from exchanges, with holdings over 91%, driven by bets on the exclusive rights of the luncheon; TRADOOR experienced over 150% daily amplitude, but with whale wallets holding 98.56% unliquidated, combining event-driven upward momentum with structural risks of concentration. All three indicate that in low-market-cap tokens, chip concentration and whale behavior are the dominant variables influencing price, and on-chain data monitoring is becoming a core analytical tool.

FAQ

Q1: RAVE surged dozens of times in 5 days. Can such a rally be sustained?

Historical experience shows that tokens with highly concentrated chips’ price movements during rallies are mainly driven by the actions of a few addresses, not market consensus. The sustainability of such a rise heavily depends on whether the main players continue to push higher or start to sell. Once main addresses begin transferring tokens back to exchanges, the speed and extent of price retracement are often proportional to the previous rise.

Q2: Does whales continuously accumulating TRUMP imply long-term value?

Whale accumulation is primarily driven by the exclusive rights of the April 25 luncheon (top 297 holders invited), rather than a long-term positive outlook on the project fundamentals. With over 91% concentration, once the event ends or whales exit, market liquidity will face severe tests. Their behavior reflects more short-term arbitrage expectations than a genuine valuation.

Q3: How to assess the current investment risk of TRADOOR?

On-chain data shows whale wallets hold 98.56% of tokens and have not yet sold, meaning most chips are still held by a single address. Under this structure, current trading activity mainly occurs within highly concentrated stockpiles. It’s advisable to closely monitor whether this address begins depositing tokens into exchanges, which could signal the start of profit-taking.

Q4: How can ordinary investors monitor risks in such tokens?

It’s recommended to track the following on-chain indicators: first, the proportion change of the top 10 addresses’ holdings; second, whale addresses’ deposit and withdrawal behaviors; third, the timing relationship between price changes and address holdings. Abnormal changes in these indicators often serve as early warning signals of risk.