Currently short-term sideways, overall structure still bullish bias, but not a strong rally, caution is needed.

Current BTC real-time situation (as of around April 18, 2026)
Price: oscillating around $74,500 - $76,500 USD, with 1-4% volatility in the past 24 hours, slight rebound within 7 days (+4-7%). This week, it approached or broke through 76k-78k but remains in a tug-of-war between the key zones of 75k-80k. 7f365e
Fear & Greed Index: 21 (Extreme Fear) — an extreme fear indicator, often a contrarian signal, historically, extreme fear often leads to rebounds or bottom accumulation. 46605e
Bullish reasons
Technical structure: Many analyses believe BTC still maintains a long-term bullish channel, supported around 70k-73k, with stronger support at 65k-68k. MA indicators show a bullish alignment, and some timeframes display “buy” signals, with potential testing of the 80k psychological level.
Cycle position: After the 2024 halving, currently in the mid-to-late cycle (more than halfway through, next halving in 2028). Historically, the latter half of halving cycles often sees big moves, although this round has been relatively mild (recovering after a high point correction).
Institutional/on-chain: Exchange reserves are low, whales are accumulating, ETF-related fund flows are positive. Weakening USD (DXY downtrend) generally benefits BTC.
Macro: US stocks hitting new highs, risk appetite warming (geopolitical easing), favorable for risk assets.
Bearish/risk factors
Short-term pressure: 75k-78k is a strong resistance zone, repeatedly blocked. Some indicators show neutral to weak in the medium-short term, and global liquidity or macro uncertainties may lead to a pullback.
Sentiment: Extreme Fear, prone to false breakouts or shakeouts.
Historical volatility: BTC often retraces 20-30%, and although this round has adjusted quite a bit from the high, it has not fully escaped the bear market aftershocks.
Overall judgment: Short-term leaning towards sideways with a bullish bias, medium to long-term more firmly bullish. Not the time for “all-in” rapid surge, but for buying on dips or waiting for breakout confirmation. 80k is an important recent target, and a drop below 70k warrants caution for further correction.
Suggestions
Trading strategy: Use daily/4H charts; if price stabilizes above 75k with volume, consider adding positions; around 72k-70k is a good observation zone. Setting stop-loss is very important.
For beginners: Continue DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) for the most stable approach, avoid chasing highs or selling lows.
Monitoring focus: Resistance at 75k-80k, Fear & Greed index, ETF fund flows, Federal Reserve/macroeconomic news. $BTC